Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - October 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET
Resolved Up. 88% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
8
Down 88%
$20
-$29.35
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Downavg 10.5¢ | $8.18 | — | -$8.18 | 68% 99525-47913 (147438) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 87¢ | $17.4 | $20 | +$2.6 | 64% 23206-12791 (35997) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $7.9 | — | -$7.9 | 66% 112173-58591 (170764) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 22¢ | $2.3 | — | -$2.3 | 55% 44917-37366 (82283) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 23¢ | $2.31 | — | -$2.31 | 61% 94915-59834 (154749) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $4.9 | — | -$4.9 | 46% 7940-9367 (17307) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 61¢ | $4.66 | — | -$4.66 | 57% 70901-53981 (124882) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 24¢ | $1.7 | — | -$1.7 | 52% 90329-84819 (175148) |
Invested
$8.18
Value
—
PnL
-$8.18
Record
68%
99525-47913 (147438)
Invested
$17.4
Value
$20
PnL
+$2.6
Record
64%
23206-12791 (35997)
Invested
$7.9
Value
—
PnL
-$7.9
Record
66%
112173-58591 (170764)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$2.3
Value
—
PnL
-$2.3
Record
55%
44917-37366 (82283)
Invested
$2.31
Value
—
PnL
-$2.31
Record
61%
94915-59834 (154749)
Invested
$4.9
Value
—
PnL
-$4.9
Record
46%
7940-9367 (17307)
Invested
$4.66
Value
—
PnL
-$4.66
Record
57%
70901-53981 (124882)
Invested
$1.7
Value
—
PnL
-$1.7
Record
52%
90329-84819 (175148)
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