Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
XRP Up or Down - October 30, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
10
Down 60%
1 arb excluded
$403.53
-$19.64
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507 | Downavg 89.2¢ | $209.22 | $218.32 | +$10.09 | 48% 23276-25616 (48892) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 92.4¢ | $71.27 | $72.18 | +$0.91 | 55% 44917-37366 (82283) |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 74.1¢ | $62.85 | $61.01 | -$1.85 | 57% 70901-53981 (124882) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 74.1¢ | $45.2 | $61.01 | +$15.81 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 25.2¢ | $17.66 | — | -$17.66 | |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 74.7¢ | $36.69 | $32.53 | -$4.16 | 52% 90329-84819 (175148) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 96.4¢ | $10.77 | $9.77 | -$1 | 61% 94915-59834 (154749) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Upavg 26¢ | $4.16 | — | -$4.16 | 55% 50491-41087 (91578) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $6.48 | $6.49 | +$0.01 | 59% 62251-43417 (105668) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 38.6¢ | $17.64 | — | -$17.64 | 66% 112173-58591 (170764) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 30¢ | $1.6 | — | -$1.6 | 66% 125811-64748 (190559) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $2.23 | $3.23 | +$1 | 64% 23206-12791 (35997) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 4.4¢ | $3.08 | — | -$3.08 | 63% 51921-30603 (82524) |
Invested
$209.22
Value
$218.32
PnL
+$10.09
Record
48%
23276-25616 (48892)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$71.27
Value
$72.18
PnL
+$0.91
Record
55%
44917-37366 (82283)
Invested
$62.85
Value
$61.01
PnL
-$1.85
Record
57%
70901-53981 (124882)
Both legs:
Invested
$36.69
Value
$32.53
PnL
-$4.16
Record
52%
90329-84819 (175148)
Invested
$10.77
Value
$9.77
PnL
-$1
Record
61%
94915-59834 (154749)
Invested
$4.16
Value
—
PnL
-$4.16
Record
55%
50491-41087 (91578)
Invested
$6.48
Value
$6.49
PnL
+$0.01
Record
59%
62251-43417 (105668)
Invested
$17.64
Value
—
PnL
-$17.64
Record
66%
112173-58591 (170764)
Invested
$1.6
Value
—
PnL
-$1.6
Record
66%
125811-64748 (190559)
Invested
$2.23
Value
$3.23
PnL
+$1
Record
64%
23206-12791 (35997)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$3.08
Value
—
PnL
-$3.08
Record
63%
51921-30603 (82524)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507
Down — $218.32
MayorMamdani
Down — $72.18
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
dvasdkasodk
Down — $32.53
asidjasiodja
Down — $9.77
mo-money
CTRUp — $0
0x50f7
Down — $6.49
antsaslyku
CTRUp — $0
asdaefef
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
Down — $3.23