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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - October 30, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET

Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Up 56%

Total Value

$117.44

Combined PnL

-$306.09

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 9 top traders (56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares401

Combined PnL-$348.12

Down4 traders

Total Value$117.44

Total Shares117

Combined PnL+$42.03

Up — 56%Down — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 94.7¢	$283.95	—	-$283.95	48% 23252-25544 (48796)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 53.8¢	$39.26	$64.07	+$24.81	66% 112081-58477 (170558)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 50.9¢	$23.04	—	-$15.92	64% 22980-12672 (35652)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 55.6¢	$23.27	—	-$23.27	52% 90179-84671 (174850)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 52.5¢	$21.85	—	-$21.85	61% 94766-59706 (154472)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 31.1¢	$37.56	$29.08	+$12.02	65% 125073-66927 (192000)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 86¢	$15.89	$14.29	-$1.6	55% 44800-37263 (82063)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Upavg 26¢	$3.13	—	-$3.13	63% 51816-30540 (82356)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 32¢	$3.2	$10	+$6.8	58% 60485-44163 (104648)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$283.95

Value

—

PnL

-$283.95

Record

48%

23252-25544 (48796)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$39.26

Value

$64.07

PnL

+$24.81

Record

66%

112081-58477 (170558)

Invested

$23.04

Value

—

PnL

-$15.92

Record

64%

22980-12672 (35652)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$23.27

Value

—

PnL

-$23.27

Record

52%

90179-84671 (174850)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$21.85

Value

—

PnL

-$21.85

Record

61%

94766-59706 (154472)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$37.56

Value

$29.08

PnL

+$12.02

Record

65%

125073-66927 (192000)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$15.89

Value

$14.29

PnL

-$1.6

Record

55%

44800-37263 (82063)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$3.13

Value

—

PnL

-$3.13

Record

63%

51816-30540 (82356)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$3.2

Value

$10

PnL

+$6.8

Record

58%

60485-44163 (104648)

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 9 top traders (56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xd6e372bb...063cd5

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1793341800

Traders in this Market

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Up — $0

antsaslyku

Down — $64.07

aaa221

Up — $0

dvasdkasodk

Up — $0

asidjasiodja

Up — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $29.08

MayorMamdani

Down — $14.29

UpandDownSyndrome

Up — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $10

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