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DownDown
MayorMamdani<$100UpUpUp
ohioismCTR<$100DownDown
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - October 29, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET
Resolved Up. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Down 50%
Total Value
$36.68
Combined PnL
-$11.87
Smart Money Signal
Down
4 of 7 top traders (57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares76
Combined PnL-$22.32
Up3 traders
Total Value$36.68
Total Shares37
Combined PnL+$10.45
Down — 57%Up — 43%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Downavg 16.6¢ | $6.33 | — | -$6.33 | 48% 23240-25517 (48757) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 31.3¢ | $9.6 | — | -$9.6 | 65% 124925-66828 (191753) |
MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 59.1¢ | $11.74 | $19.87 | +$8.13 | 55% 44748-37210 (81958) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 69.2¢ | $10.19 | $11 | +$0.81 | 61% 94696-59644 (154340) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 37¢ | $4.3 | $5.81 | +$1.51 | 52% 90119-84595 (174714) |
ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 41¢ | $2.78 | — | -$2.78 | 64% 40003-22867 (62870) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 48.5¢ | $5.92 | — | -$3.61 | 64% 22856-12613 (35469) |
0X
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100Invested
$6.33
Value
—
PnL
-$6.33
Record
48%
23240-25517 (48757)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100Invested
$9.6
Value
—
PnL
-$9.6
Record
65%
124925-66828 (191753)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$11.74
Value
$19.87
PnL
+$8.13
Record
55%
44748-37210 (81958)
AS
asidjasiodja<$100Invested
$10.19
Value
$11
PnL
+$0.81
Record
61%
94696-59644 (154340)
DV
dvasdkasodk<$100Invested
$4.3
Value
$5.81
PnL
+$1.51
Record
52%
90119-84595 (174714)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$2.78
Value
—
PnL
-$2.78
Record
64%
40003-22867 (62870)
AA
aaa221CTR<$100Invested
$5.92
Value
—
PnL
-$3.61
Record
64%
22856-12613 (35469)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x4155a721...1ea987
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1793331600