Consensus Lost β
Smart money consensus was Down β but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - October 29, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
π
Lost
7
Down 57%
1 arb excluded
$114.31
-$41.16
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN antsaslykuARB<$100 | Upavg 46.9Β’ | $43.46 | $49.39 | +$5.93 | 66% 112022-58386 (170408) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 46.9Β’ | $23.14 | $49.39 | +$26.25 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 39.6Β’ | $20.32 | β | -$20.32 | |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 67.6Β’ | $51.98 | $43.42 | -$5 | 64% 22780-12562 (35342) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Upavg 99Β’ | $16.34 | $16.5 | +$0.16 | 59% 62165-43330 (105495) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 49.3Β’ | $12.51 | β | -$12.51 | 58% 60418-44109 (104527) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 62Β’ | $14.26 | β | -$14.26 | 56% 57906-44729 (102635) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 99Β’ | $9.25 | $5 | -$4.25 | 52% 90065-84555 (174620) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 43Β’ | $4.3 | β | -$4.3 | 61% 94646-59611 (154257) |
![]() UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 15Β’ | $1 | β | -$1 | 63% 51732-30464 (82196) |
Invested
$43.46
Value
$49.39
PnL
+$5.93
Record
66%
112022-58386 (170408)
Both legs:
Invested
$51.98
Value
$43.42
PnL
-$5
Record
64%
22780-12562 (35342)
Invested
$16.34
Value
$16.5
PnL
+$0.16
Record
59%
62165-43330 (105495)
Invested
$12.51
Value
β
PnL
-$12.51
Record
58%
60418-44109 (104527)
Invested
$14.26
Value
β
PnL
-$14.26
Record
56%
57906-44729 (102635)
Invested
$9.25
Value
$5
PnL
-$4.25
Record
52%
90065-84555 (174620)
Invested
$4.3
Value
β
PnL
-$4.3
Record
61%
94646-59611 (154257)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$1
Value
β
PnL
-$1
Record
63%
51732-30464 (82196)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
antsaslyku
ARBArbitrage β excluded
aaa221
Up β $43.42
0x50f7
Up β $16.5
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRDown β $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRDown β $0
dvasdkasodk
Up β $5
asidjasiodja
CTRDown β $0

UpandDownSyndrome
CTRDown β $0