Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - October 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
6
Up 67%
1 arb excluded
$97.1
-$143.43
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 68.4¢ | $55.38 | $49.07 | -$6.31 | 52% 89831-84292 (174123) |
AN antsaslykuARB<$100 | Upavg 59.9¢ | $54.35 | $36.42 | -$17.93 | 66% 111875-58207 (170082) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 59.9¢ | $33.33 | — | -$33.33 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.7¢ | $21.02 | $36.42 | +$15.4 | |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Upavg 84.2¢ | $68.2 | — | -$68.2 | 48% 23173-25375 (48548) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 77¢ | $37.38 | — | -$37.38 | 57% 70341-53444 (123785) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $25.59 | — | -$20.51 | 65% 22398-12314 (34712) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 79¢ | $13.72 | — | -$13.72 | 61% 94398-59400 (153798) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 76.8¢ | $8.91 | $11.61 | +$2.7 | 55% 44484-36982 (81466) |
Invested
$55.38
Value
$49.07
PnL
-$6.31
Record
52%
89831-84292 (174123)
Invested
$54.35
Value
$36.42
PnL
-$17.93
Record
66%
111875-58207 (170082)
Both legs:
Invested
$68.2
Value
—
PnL
-$68.2
Record
48%
23173-25375 (48548)
Invested
$37.38
Value
—
PnL
-$37.38
Record
57%
70341-53444 (123785)
Invested
$25.59
Value
—
PnL
-$20.51
Record
65%
22398-12314 (34712)
Invested
$13.72
Value
—
PnL
-$13.72
Record
61%
94398-59400 (153798)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$8.91
Value
$11.61
PnL
+$2.7
Record
55%
44484-36982 (81466)
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