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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - October 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Down 50%
Total Value
$40.87
Combined PnL
-$80.27
Smart Money Signal
Down
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares94
Combined PnL-$72.51
Up3 traders
Total Value$40.87
Total Shares41
Combined PnL-$7.76
Down — 50%Up — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 87.2¢ | $52.52 | — | -$52.52 | 57% 70341-53444 (123785) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 92.8¢ | $29.65 | $22.2 | -$7.45 | 66% 125156-64405 (189561) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 26.7¢ | $11.52 | — | -$11.52 | 52% 89831-84292 (174123) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 89¢ | $10.65 | $11.97 | +$1.32 | 65% 22398-12314 (34712) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | $8.33 | $6.71 | -$1.62 | 61% 94398-59400 (153798) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 77¢ | $8.47 | — | -$8.47 | 66% 111875-58207 (170082) |
UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100Invested
$52.52
Value
—
PnL
-$52.52
Record
57%
70341-53444 (123785)
AS
asdaefef<$100Invested
$29.65
Value
$22.2
PnL
-$7.45
Record
66%
125156-64405 (189561)
DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100Invested
$11.52
Value
—
PnL
-$11.52
Record
52%
89831-84292 (174123)
AA
aaa221<$100Invested
$10.65
Value
$11.97
PnL
+$1.32
Record
65%
22398-12314 (34712)
AS
asidjasiodja<$100Invested
$8.33
Value
$6.71
PnL
-$1.62
Record
61%
94398-59400 (153798)
AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100Invested
$8.47
Value
—
PnL
-$8.47
Record
66%
111875-58207 (170082)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xbd625a35...93ed6f
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1793276700