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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - October 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET

Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Up 67%

Total Value

$86.07

Combined PnL

-$51.42

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 9 top traders (67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down3 traders

Total Value$86.07

Total Shares86

Combined PnL-$7.55

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares108

Combined PnL-$43.87

Down — 33%Up — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 97¢	$53.35	$55	+$1.65	55% 44462-36957 (81419)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 85¢	$25.29	$19	-$6.29	66% 125109-64377 (189486)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 62.7¢	$14.98	$12.07	-$2.91	66% 111846-58190 (170036)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 70.2¢	$10.8	—	-$10.8	61% 94365-59372 (153737)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 33.6¢	$9.75	—	-$9.75	57% 70317-53442 (123759)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 58.4¢	$21.01	—	-$15.57	65% 22359-12289 (34648)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 76¢	$4.56	—	-$4.56	52% 89796-84260 (174056)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 3.7¢	$1.33	—	-$1.33	59% 62097-43210 (105307)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 10¢	$1.86	—	-$1.86	58% 60278-44004 (104282)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$53.35

Value

$55

PnL

+$1.65

Record

55%

44462-36957 (81419)

Invested

$25.29

Value

$19

PnL

-$6.29

Record

66%

125109-64377 (189486)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$14.98

Value

$12.07

PnL

-$2.91

Record

66%

111846-58190 (170036)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$10.8

Value

—

PnL

-$10.8

Record

61%

94365-59372 (153737)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$9.75

Value

—

PnL

-$9.75

Record

57%

70317-53442 (123759)

Invested

$21.01

Value

—

PnL

-$15.57

Record

65%

22359-12289 (34648)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$4.56

Value

—

PnL

-$4.56

Record

52%

89796-84260 (174056)

Invested

$1.33

Value

—

PnL

-$1.33

Record

59%

62097-43210 (105307)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$1.86

Value

—

PnL

-$1.86

Record

58%

60278-44004 (104282)

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 9 top traders (67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xcb04c3ba...3bb864

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1793272500

Traders in this Market

MayorMamdani

Down — $55

asdaefef

Down — $19

antsaslyku

Down — $12.07

asidjasiodja

Up — $0

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

aaa221

Up — $0

dvasdkasodk

Up — $0

0x50f7

Up — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $0

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