Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - October 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
8
Up 57%
$99.63
-$2.8
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $54.88 | $56 | +$1.12 | 55% 44407-36899 (81306) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 43.9¢ | $18.69 | $42.58 | +$23.89 | 66% 111803-58146 (169949) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 23¢ | $7.41 | — | -$7.41 | 52% 89734-84193 (173927) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 71.9¢ | $16.03 | — | -$16.03 | 65% 22283-12231 (34514) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 6.4¢ | $1 | — | -$1 | 63% 51496-30306 (81802) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 59¢ | $3.1 | — | -$3.1 | 66% 125021-64333 (189354) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $1.04 | $1.05 | +$0.01 | 74% 102283-36351 (138634) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 39¢ | $0.29 | — | -$0.29 | 61% 94291-59323 (153614) |
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$54.88
Value
$56
PnL
+$1.12
Record
55%
44407-36899 (81306)
Invested
$18.69
Value
$42.58
PnL
+$23.89
Record
66%
111803-58146 (169949)
Invested
$7.41
Value
—
PnL
-$7.41
Record
52%
89734-84193 (173927)
Invested
$16.03
Value
—
PnL
-$16.03
Record
65%
22283-12231 (34514)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$1
Value
—
PnL
-$1
Record
63%
51496-30306 (81802)
Invested
$3.1
Value
—
PnL
-$3.1
Record
66%
125021-64333 (189354)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$1.04
Value
$1.05
PnL
+$0.01
Record
74%
102283-36351 (138634)
Invested
$0.29
Value
—
PnL
-$0.29
Record
61%
94291-59323 (153614)
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