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Down
MayorMamdani<$100Down
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Down
ohioismCTR<$100UpUpUp
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - October 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Up 60%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$196.1
Combined PnL
$6.52
Smart Money Signal
Up
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down2 traders
Total Value$89.51
Total Shares90
Combined PnL+$31.38
Up3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares39
Combined PnL-$24.86
Down — 40%Up — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN antsaslykuARB<$100 | Downavg 43.3¢ | $72.51 | $106.59 | +$34.08 | 66% 111803-58146 (169949) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 43.3¢ | $46.14 | $106.59 | +$60.45 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33.1¢ | $26.37 | — | -$26.37 | |
MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 60.2¢ | $32.15 | $53.4 | +$21.25 | 55% 44407-36899 (81306) |
UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 71.9¢ | $25.98 | $36.12 | +$10.14 | 63% 51496-30306 (81802) |
ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 57¢ | $10.26 | — | -$10.26 | 64% 39836-22759 (62595) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 75.1¢ | $9.4 | — | -$9.4 | 65% 22283-12231 (34514) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 64¢ | $5.2 | — | -$5.2 | 66% 125021-64333 (189354) |
AN
antsaslykuARB<$100Invested
$72.51
Value
$106.59
PnL
+$34.08
Record
66%
111803-58146 (169949)
Both legs:
Down$46.1443.3¢+$60.45
Up$26.3733.1¢-$26.37
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$32.15
Value
$53.4
PnL
+$21.25
Record
55%
44407-36899 (81306)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$25.98
Value
$36.12
PnL
+$10.14
Record
63%
51496-30306 (81802)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$10.26
Value
—
PnL
-$10.26
Record
64%
39836-22759 (62595)
AA
aaa221CTR<$100Invested
$9.4
Value
—
PnL
-$9.4
Record
65%
22283-12231 (34514)
AS
asdaefefCTR<$100Invested
$5.2
Value
—
PnL
-$5.2
Record
66%
125021-64333 (189354)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xa5dad841...e0ae31
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1793260500