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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - October 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Down 57%
Total Value
$206.79
Combined PnL
$27.38
Smart Money Signal
Down
4 of 7 top traders (57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares100
Combined PnL-$64.62
Up3 traders
Total Value$206.79
Total Shares207
Combined PnL+$92
Down — 57%Up — 43%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 42.6¢ | $31.64 | — | -$31.64 | 66% 111604-57865 (169469) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 98.8¢ | $74.36 | $48 | -$26.36 | 65% 124444-66560 (191004) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507 | Upavg 8.7¢ | $11.09 | $127.44 | +$116.36 | 48% 23103-25256 (48359) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 70.8¢ | $34.19 | $31.34 | +$2 | 65% 21975-12079 (34054) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 58.1¢ | $10.14 | — | -$10.14 | 66% 124813-64240 (189053) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $11.5 | — | -$11.5 | 52% 89581-84030 (173611) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 92.4¢ | $11.34 | — | -$11.34 | 61% 94136-59204 (153340) |
AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100Invested
$31.64
Value
—
PnL
-$31.64
Record
66%
111604-57865 (169469)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$74.36
Value
$48
PnL
-$26.36
Record
65%
124444-66560 (191004)
0X
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507Invested
$11.09
Value
$127.44
PnL
+$116.36
Record
48%
23103-25256 (48359)
AA
aaa221<$100Invested
$34.19
Value
$31.34
PnL
+$2
Record
65%
21975-12079 (34054)
AS
asdaefefCTR<$100Invested
$10.14
Value
—
PnL
-$10.14
Record
66%
124813-64240 (189053)
DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100Invested
$11.5
Value
—
PnL
-$11.5
Record
52%
89581-84030 (173611)
AS
asidjasiodjaCTR<$100Invested
$11.34
Value
—
PnL
-$11.34
Record
61%
94136-59204 (153340)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xf21b0716...9d4a87
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1793236200