Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
XRP Up or Down - October 28, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET
Resolved Down. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
6
Down 83%
1 arb excluded
$178.85
-$5.26
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN antsaslykuARB<$100 | Upavg 65.1¢ | $43.05 | $43.29 | +$0.24 | 66% 111604-57865 (169469) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 65.1¢ | $31.11 | — | -$31.11 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 27.6¢ | $11.94 | $43.29 | +$31.35 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $57.98 | $46 | -$11.98 | 65% 124408-66548 (190956) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 59.2¢ | $22.92 | $38.74 | +$15.82 | 63% 51338-30220 (81558) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 35.1¢ | $12.5 | $35.6 | +$23.1 | 55% 44239-36719 (80958) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 79.1¢ | $42.64 | — | -$42.64 | 65% 21925-12064 (33989) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 31¢ | $2.8 | $9.03 | +$6.23 | 61% 94094-59183 (153277) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 32¢ | $1.98 | $6.19 | +$4.21 | 52% 89542-84009 (173551) |
Invested
$43.05
Value
$43.29
PnL
+$0.24
Record
66%
111604-57865 (169469)
Both legs:
Invested
$57.98
Value
$46
PnL
-$11.98
Record
65%
124408-66548 (190956)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$22.92
Value
$38.74
PnL
+$15.82
Record
63%
51338-30220 (81558)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$12.5
Value
$35.6
PnL
+$23.1
Record
55%
44239-36719 (80958)
Invested
$42.64
Value
—
PnL
-$42.64
Record
65%
21925-12064 (33989)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$9.03
PnL
+$6.23
Record
61%
94094-59183 (153277)
Invested
$1.98
Value
$6.19
PnL
+$4.21
Record
52%
89542-84009 (173551)
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