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UpUpDown
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100DownDown
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - October 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Down 60%
Total Value
$80
Combined PnL
-$2.74
Smart Money Signal
Down
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up2 traders
Total Value$80
Total Shares80
Combined PnL+$2.99
Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares34
Combined PnL-$5.73
Up — 40%Down — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 96.5¢ | $48.25 | $50 | +$1.75 | 57% 69844-53054 (122898) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 95.9¢ | $28.76 | $30 | +$1.24 | 65% 124252-66451 (190703) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 2¢ | $0.35 | — | -$0.35 | 59% 61971-43014 (104985) |
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 32¢ | $3.4 | — | -$3.4 | 55% 44030-36522 (80552) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 33¢ | $1.98 | — | -$1.98 | 66% 124477-64080 (188557) |
UN
uninformedfloww<$100Invested
$48.25
Value
$50
PnL
+$1.75
Record
57%
69844-53054 (122898)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$28.76
Value
$30
PnL
+$1.24
Record
65%
124252-66451 (190703)
0X
0x50f7CTR<$100Invested
$0.35
Value
—
PnL
-$0.35
Record
59%
61971-43014 (104985)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$3.4
Value
—
PnL
-$3.4
Record
55%
44030-36522 (80552)
AS
asdaefefCTR<$100Invested
$1.98
Value
—
PnL
-$1.98
Record
66%
124477-64080 (188557)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x2deadb4b...feba84
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1793205000