Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - October 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET
Resolved Up. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
8
Down 63%
2 arb excluded
$157.01
-$75.07
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Upavg 90¢ | $121.63 | $68.19 | -$53.43 | 57% 69604-52928 (122532) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47.6¢ | $60.26 | — | -$60.26 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 90¢ | $61.37 | $68.19 | +$6.83 | |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 43.1¢ | $58.26 | — | -$58.26 | 66% 111454-57709 (169163) |
 MayorMamdaniARB<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $87.69 | $56 | -$31.69 | 55% 43943-36416 (80359) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.1¢ | $32.81 | — | -$32.81 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 98¢ | $54.88 | $56 | +$1.12 | |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $23.34 | — | -$23.34 | 65% 21441-11773 (33214) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 63¢ | $11.45 | $16.51 | +$5.06 | 52% 89215-83682 (172897) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 96¢ | $9.97 | $10.39 | +$0.42 | 63% 51064-30076 (81140) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 62¢ | $3.67 | $5.92 | +$2.25 | 64% 39676-22644 (62320) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 3¢ | $0.15 | — | -$0.15 | 59% 61946-42948 (104894) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 15¢ | $0.45 | — | -$0.45 | 61% 93726-58934 (152660) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 56¢ | $0.6 | — | -$0.6 | 66% 124340-64008 (188348) |
Invested
$121.63
Value
$68.19
PnL
-$53.43
Record
57%
69604-52928 (122532)
Both legs:
Invested
$58.26
Value
—
PnL
-$58.26
Record
66%
111454-57709 (169163)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100Invested
$87.69
Value
$56
PnL
-$31.69
Record
55%
43943-36416 (80359)
Both legs:
Invested
$23.34
Value
—
PnL
-$23.34
Record
65%
21441-11773 (33214)
Invested
$11.45
Value
$16.51
PnL
+$5.06
Record
52%
89215-83682 (172897)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$9.97
Value
$10.39
PnL
+$0.42
Record
63%
51064-30076 (81140)
ohioism<$100Invested
$3.67
Value
$5.92
PnL
+$2.25
Record
64%
39676-22644 (62320)
Invested
$0.15
Value
—
PnL
-$0.15
Record
59%
61946-42948 (104894)
Invested
$0.45
Value
—
PnL
-$0.45
Record
61%
93726-58934 (152660)
Invested
$0.6
Value
—
PnL
-$0.6
Record
66%
124340-64008 (188348)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
antsaslyku
CTRDown — $0
MayorMamdani
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aaa221
CTRDown — $0
dvasdkasodk
Up — $16.51
UpandDownSyndrome
Up — $10.39
ohioism
Up — $5.92
0x50f7
CTRDown — $0
asidjasiodja
CTRDown — $0
asdaefef
CTRDown — $0