Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - October 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
6
Up 50%
1 arb excluded
$149.7
$5.39
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 54.9¢ | $96.86 | $98.87 | +$2.01 | 57% 69318-52757 (122075) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54.9¢ | $54.31 | $98.87 | +$44.56 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 77.4¢ | $42.55 | — | -$42.55 | |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 23.3¢ | $10.07 | — | -$10.07 | 55% 43879-36307 (80186) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100 | Downavg 3¢ | $0.86 | $28.65 | +$27.79 | 48% 22992-25043 (48035) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 61¢ | $15.32 | — | -$15.32 | 65% 21119-11585 (32704) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $12.47 | $16.66 | +$4.19 | 66% 111385-57646 (169031) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 80.2¢ | $5.67 | — | -$5.67 | 66% 124228-63947 (188175) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 19¢ | $1.05 | $5.53 | +$4.48 | 52% 89117-83588 (172705) |
Invested
$96.86
Value
$98.87
PnL
+$2.01
Record
57%
69318-52757 (122075)
Both legs:
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$10.07
Value
—
PnL
-$10.07
Record
55%
43879-36307 (80186)
Invested
$0.86
Value
$28.65
PnL
+$27.79
Record
48%
22992-25043 (48035)
Invested
$15.32
Value
—
PnL
-$15.32
Record
65%
21119-11585 (32704)
Invested
$12.47
Value
$16.66
PnL
+$4.19
Record
66%
111385-57646 (169031)
Invested
$5.67
Value
—
PnL
-$5.67
Record
66%
124228-63947 (188175)
Invested
$1.05
Value
$5.53
PnL
+$4.48
Record
52%
89117-83588 (172705)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.