Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Down β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

XRP Up or Down - October 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
π
Won
7
Down 71%
1 arb excluded
$164.55
$3.24
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100 | Downavg 69.9Β’ | $41.17 | $40.47 | -$0.7 | 63% 50818-30002 (80820) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 21.7Β’ | $12.89 | β | -$12.89 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 69.9Β’ | $28.28 | $40.47 | +$12.19 | |
![]() MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 86.6Β’ | $46.54 | $53.75 | +$7.21 | 55% 43796-36217 (80013) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 98Β’ | $32.5 | $32.33 | -$0.17 | 65% 123835-66215 (190050) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 98Β’ | $19.04 | $17 | -$2.04 | 61% 93527-58804 (152331) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 99Β’ | $15.84 | $16.01 | +$0.17 | 66% 124118-63886 (188004) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 13.1Β’ | $1.65 | β | -$1.65 | 52% 89030-83502 (172532) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 33Β’ | $1.92 | β | -$1.92 | 58% 59994-43795 (103789) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 67Β’ | $3.35 | $5 | +$1.65 | 65% 20975-11511 (32486) |
UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100Invested
$41.17
Value
$40.47
PnL
-$0.7
Record
63%
50818-30002 (80820)
Both legs:
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$46.54
Value
$53.75
PnL
+$7.21
Record
55%
43796-36217 (80013)
Invested
$32.5
Value
$32.33
PnL
-$0.17
Record
65%
123835-66215 (190050)
Invested
$19.04
Value
$17
PnL
-$2.04
Record
61%
93527-58804 (152331)
Invested
$15.84
Value
$16.01
PnL
+$0.17
Record
66%
124118-63886 (188004)
Invested
$1.65
Value
β
PnL
-$1.65
Record
52%
89030-83502 (172532)
Invested
$1.92
Value
β
PnL
-$1.92
Record
58%
59994-43795 (103789)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.65
Record
65%
20975-11511 (32486)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market

UpandDownSyndrome
ARBArbitrage β excluded

MayorMamdani
Down β $53.75
drfc4eybh7i8
Down β $32.33
asidjasiodja
Down β $17
asdaefef
Down β $16.01
dvasdkasodk
CTRUp β $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRUp β $0
aaa221
Down β $5