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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - October 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Down 60%
Total Value
$33
Combined PnL
-$8.84
Smart Money Signal
Down
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up2 traders
Total Value$33
Total Shares33
Combined PnL-$2.98
Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares24
Combined PnL-$5.86
Up — 40%Down — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 94.7¢ | $28.56 | $27 | -$1.56 | 66% 123706-63693 (187399) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Upavg 75¢ | $7.42 | $6 | -$1.42 | 68% 98347-46616 (144963) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 27.1¢ | $3.26 | — | -$3.26 | 61% 93204-58582 (151786) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 23¢ | $1.44 | — | -$1.44 | 52% 88749-83182 (171931) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 21¢ | $1.16 | — | -$1.16 | 65% 123475-66020 (189495) |
AS
asdaefef<$100Invested
$28.56
Value
$27
PnL
-$1.56
Record
66%
123706-63693 (187399)
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100Invested
$7.42
Value
$6
PnL
-$1.42
Record
68%
98347-46616 (144963)
AS
asidjasiodjaCTR<$100Invested
$3.26
Value
—
PnL
-$3.26
Record
61%
93204-58582 (151786)
DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100Invested
$1.44
Value
—
PnL
-$1.44
Record
52%
88749-83182 (171931)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100Invested
$1.16
Value
—
PnL
-$1.16
Record
65%
123475-66020 (189495)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xf33e6b62...621b05
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1793090700