XRP Up or Down - November 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (80%) · Down at 98¢ · $805 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Down
5
Down 80%
$804.72
$39.86
85.1¢ → 98.4¢
+16% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 91.1¢ | $590.82 | $583.2 | -$7.62 | 53% 678-592 (1270) |
AN Anon455<$100 | Downavg 55.4¢ | $57.04 | $94.75 | +$37.71 | 42% 155-211 (366) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 78.7¢ | $75.65 | $80.75 | +$5.1 | 41% 317-458 (775) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $41 | $45.75 | +$4.75 | 50% 3547-3589 (7136) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Upavg 26¢ | $0.35 | $0.27 | -$0.08 | 41% 315-447 (762) |
Invested
$590.82
Value
$583.2
PnL
-$7.62
Record
53%
678-592 (1270)
Invested
$57.04
Value
$94.75
PnL
+$37.71
Record
42%
155-211 (366)
Invested
$75.65
Value
$80.75
PnL
+$5.1
Record
41%
317-458 (775)
Invested
$41
Value
$45.75
PnL
+$4.75
Record
50%
3547-3589 (7136)
Invested
$0.35
Value
$0.27
PnL
-$0.08
Record
41%
315-447 (762)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.