XRP Up or Down - November 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Up (88%) · Up at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 88%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$380.7

Smart Money Entry

57.3¢ → 100¢

+74% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$965.19

Total Shares1,019

Combined PnL+$380.64

Down1 trader

Total Value$0.36

Total Shares30

Combined PnL+$0.06

Up — 88%Down — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Up 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$720	+$220	56% 2341-1812 (4153)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$470	+$220
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$250	+$0
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Upavg 59.7¢	$358.5	$564	+$205.5	37% 585-985 (1570)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 55¢	$82.5	$141	+$58.5	50% 1101-1104 (2205)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 50¢	$68.86	$136.21	+$67.35	51% 1641-1598 (3239)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Upavg 54.3¢	$32.6	$56.4	+$23.8	47% 783-880 (1663)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 62¢	$32.28	$48.96	+$16.68	60% 2210-1484 (3694)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 50¢	$5	$9.4	+$4.4	48% 1183-1263 (2446)
38 38791873984189<$100	Upavg 49¢	$4.8	$9.22	+$4.41	48% 2064-2270 (4334)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$0.3	$0.36	+$0.06	38% 803-1329 (2132)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$720

PnL

+$220

Record

56%

2341-1812 (4153)

Both legs:

Up$25050¢+$220

Down$25050¢+$0

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$358.5

Value

$564

PnL

+$205.5

Record

37%

585-985 (1570)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$82.5

Value

$141

PnL

+$58.5

Record

50%

1101-1104 (2205)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$68.86

Value

$136.21

PnL

+$67.35

Record

51%

1641-1598 (3239)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$32.6

Value

$56.4

PnL

+$23.8

Record

47%

783-880 (1663)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$32.28

Value

$48.96

PnL

+$16.68

Record

60%

2210-1484 (3694)

ohioism<$100

Invested

Value

$9.4

PnL

+$4.4

Record

48%

1183-1263 (2446)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

$9.22

PnL

+$4.41

Record

48%

2064-2270 (4334)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.36

PnL

+$0.06

Record

38%

803-1329 (2132)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Up 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.