Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
XRP Up or Down - November 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
8
Down 63%
1 arb excluded
$578.8
-$145.23
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.4¢ | $513.76 | $490.98 | -$4.98 | 57% 2288-1755 (4043) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $245.25 | $490.98 | +$245.92 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.4¢ | $252.02 | — | -$250.9 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 60¢ | $129.96 | — | -$129.96 | 51% 1610-1559 (3169) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $23.19 | $20 | -$3.19 | 50% 1050-1060 (2110) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 33.2¢ | $7.2 | $16.27 | +$9.07 | 44% 1135-1448 (2583) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 33¢ | $11.5 | $20 | +$8.5 | 46% 1117-1330 (2447) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 93.4¢ | $21.22 | $15.26 | -$5.93 | 48% 1146-1235 (2381) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 61.4¢ | $43.53 | $16.29 | -$10.76 | 60% 2157-1447 (3604) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 35¢ | $17.65 | — | -$7.09 | 47% 1159-1332 (2491) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Upavg 38¢ | $5.85 | — | -$5.85 | 74% 910-315 (1225) |
Invested
$513.76
Value
$490.98
PnL
-$4.98
Record
57%
2288-1755 (4043)
Both legs:
Invested
$129.96
Value
—
PnL
-$129.96
Record
51%
1610-1559 (3169)
Invested
$23.19
Value
$20
PnL
-$3.19
Record
50%
1050-1060 (2110)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$7.2
Value
$16.27
PnL
+$9.07
Record
44%
1135-1448 (2583)
Invested
$11.5
Value
$20
PnL
+$8.5
Record
46%
1117-1330 (2447)
ohioism<$100Invested
$21.22
Value
$15.26
PnL
-$5.93
Record
48%
1146-1235 (2381)
Invested
$43.53
Value
$16.29
PnL
-$10.76
Record
60%
2157-1447 (3604)
Invested
$17.65
Value
—
PnL
-$7.09
Record
47%
1159-1332 (2491)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$5.85
Value
—
PnL
-$5.85
Record
74%
910-315 (1225)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
Down — $20
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $16.27
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $20
ohioism
Down — $15.26
aaa221
Down — $16.29
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRUp — $0
BoneOhio
CTRUp — $0