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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

XRP Up or Down - November 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

10

Down 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$698.2

Combined PnL

-$233.2

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$623.2

Total Shares623

Combined PnL+$100.99

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares407

Combined PnL-$334.18

Down — 60%Up — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 49.9¢	$533.26	$500.03	+$16.46	57% 2288-1755 (4043)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 42.3¢	$266.08	—	-$266.08	51% 1610-1559 (3169)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 60.7¢	$136.35	$75	-$61.35	50% 1050-1060 (2110)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.7¢	$75.85	—	-$75.85
└ Down leg	Downavg 80.7¢	$60.5	$75	+$14.5
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 38.9¢	$9.85	$25.3	+$15.45	47% 1159-1332 (2491)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 54.4¢	$27.46	—	-$27.46	60% 2157-1447 (3604)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 33.3¢	$6.72	$20	+$13.28	46% 1117-1330 (2447)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 13.1¢	$2.1	$16	+$13.9	47% 1308-1484 (2792)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 76.1¢	$32.64	—	-$32.64	47% 771-864 (1635)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 39.3¢	$5.9	$15	+$9.1	44% 1135-1448 (2583)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 30¢	$14.07	$46.87	+$32.8	37% 778-1309 (2087)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 80¢	$8	—	-$8	48% 1146-1235 (2381)

Invested

$533.26

Value

$500.03

PnL

+$16.46

Record

57%

2288-1755 (4043)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$266.08

Value

—

PnL

-$266.08

Record

51%

1610-1559 (3169)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$136.35

Value

$75

PnL

-$61.35

Record

50%

1050-1060 (2110)

Both legs:

Up$75.8560.7¢-$75.85

Down$60.580.7¢+$14.5

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$9.85

Value

$25.3

PnL

+$15.45

Record

47%

1159-1332 (2491)

Invested

$27.46

Value

—

PnL

-$27.46

Record

60%

2157-1447 (3604)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$6.72

Value

$20

PnL

+$13.28

Record

46%

1117-1330 (2447)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$2.1

Value

$16

PnL

+$13.9

Record

47%

1308-1484 (2792)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$32.64

Value

—

PnL

-$32.64

Record

47%

771-864 (1635)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$5.9

Value

$15

PnL

+$9.1

Record

44%

1135-1448 (2583)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$14.07

Value

$46.87

PnL

+$32.8

Record

37%

778-1309 (2087)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$8

Value

—

PnL

-$8

Record

48%

1146-1235 (2381)

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xe6669c10...1384c3

Slug

xrp-updown-15m-1794470400

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Down — $500.03

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

uninformedfloww

Arbitrage — excluded

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $25.3

aaa221

Up — $0

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $20

dvasdkasodk

Down — $16

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $0

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $15

antsaslyku

Down — $46.87

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