Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (100%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

XRP Up or Down - November 1, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Down (43%) · Down at 0.1¢ · $135 held · ended Nov 1

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 43%

Total Value

$135.35

Combined PnL

-$89.8

Smart Money Entry

46.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down3 traders

Total Value$86.49

Total Shares351

Combined PnL-$105.97

Up4 traders

Total Value$48.86

Total Shares86

Combined PnL+$16.17

Down — 43%Up — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 33.3¢	$66.32	$56.75	-$9.57	65% 112572-59423 (171995)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 32¢	$24.77	$29	+$10.6	64% 24882-13745 (38627)
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819CTR	Downavg 51.1¢	$111.44	$15.26	-$96.19	47% 473-543 (1016)
YO YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100	Downavg 70¢	$14.7	$14.49	-$0.21	53% 3729-3242 (6971)
BoneOhio<$100	Upavg 36.6¢	$10.48	$14.48	+$4	74% 103044-36553 (139597)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 25.1¢	$1.35	$2.72	+$1.37	52% 91321-85769 (177090)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.65	+$0.2	58% 61090-44611 (105701)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$66.32

Value

$56.75

PnL

-$9.57

Record

65%

112572-59423 (171995)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$24.77

Value

$29

PnL

+$10.6

Record

64%

24882-13745 (38627)

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819CTR

Down

Invested

$111.44

Value

$15.26

PnL

-$96.19

Record

47%

473-543 (1016)

YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.7

Value

$14.49

PnL

-$0.21

Record

53%

3729-3242 (6971)

BoneOhio<$100

Invested

$10.48

Value

$14.48

PnL

+$4

Record

74%

103044-36553 (139597)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$1.35

Value

$2.72

PnL

+$1.37

Record

52%

91321-85769 (177090)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.65

PnL

+$0.2

Record

58%

61090-44611 (105701)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.