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DownDownUpDown
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Down
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - October 31, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
Down 75%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$69.45
Combined PnL
-$160.42
Smart Money Signal
Down
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares184
Combined PnL-$168.63
Up1 trader
Total Value$41.99
Total Shares42
Combined PnL+$8.21
Down — 75%Up — 25%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 55.4¢ | $164.02 | — | -$164.02 | 57% 71395-54409 (125804) |
AN antsaslykuARB<$100 | Downavg 37.1¢ | $80.62 | $27.46 | -$53.16 | 66% 112373-59102 (171475) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 37.1¢ | $61.85 | — | -$61.85 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 68.4¢ | $18.77 | $27.46 | +$8.69 | |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 62.7¢ | $45.8 | $41.99 | +$8.21 | 64% 24274-13401 (37675) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 37.7¢ | $2.8 | — | -$2.8 | 52% 90943-85477 (176420) |
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 34¢ | $1.81 | — | -$1.81 | 63% 52248-31272 (83520) |
UN
uninformedflowwCTRInvested
$164.02
Value
—
PnL
-$164.02
Record
57%
71395-54409 (125804)
AN
antsaslykuARB<$100Invested
$80.62
Value
$27.46
PnL
-$53.16
Record
66%
112373-59102 (171475)
Both legs:
Down$61.8537.1¢-$61.85
Up$18.7768.4¢+$8.69
AA
aaa221<$100Invested
$45.8
Value
$41.99
PnL
+$8.21
Record
64%
24274-13401 (37675)
DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100Invested
$2.8
Value
—
PnL
-$2.8
Record
52%
90943-85477 (176420)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$1.81
Value
—
PnL
-$1.81
Record
63%
52248-31272 (83520)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xf7e142ad...497b21
Slug
xrp-updown-15m-1793487600