Back to Markets

Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - October 31, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Up 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$270.87

Combined PnL

$54.71

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$213.64

Total Shares214

Combined PnL+$101.72

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares136

Combined PnL-$47.01

Down — 44%Up — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819	Downavg 37.5¢	$55.29	$147.39	+$92.1	46% 462-532 (994)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 67.7¢	$181.43	$57.23	-$114.62	57% 71395-54409 (125804)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.7¢	$124.2	—	-$124.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 83.3¢	$47.64	$57.23	+$9.58
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 71.4¢	$57.49	$46.15	+$7.58	64% 24274-13401 (37675)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 34¢	$17	—	-$17	74% 102879-36496 (139375)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 34¢	$15	—	-$15	66% 112373-59102 (171475)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 79¢	$9.31	$8.1	-$1.21	52% 90943-85477 (176420)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 73¢	$8.76	$12	+$3.24	56% 58419-45082 (103501)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Upavg 17.7¢	$3.31	—	-$3.31	63% 52248-31272 (83520)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 33¢	$4.4	—	-$4.4	58% 60853-44436 (105289)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 73¢	$7.3	—	-$7.3	64% 40419-23136 (63555)

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819

Invested

$55.29

Value

$147.39

PnL

+$92.1

Record

46%

462-532 (994)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$181.43

Value

$57.23

PnL

-$114.62

Record

57%

71395-54409 (125804)

Both legs:

Up$124.267.7¢-$124.2

Down$47.6483.3¢+$9.58

Invested

$57.49

Value

$46.15

PnL

+$7.58

Record

64%

24274-13401 (37675)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$17

Value

—

PnL

-$17

Record

74%

102879-36496 (139375)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$15

Value

—

PnL

-$15

Record

66%

112373-59102 (171475)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$9.31

Value

$8.1

PnL

-$1.21

Record

52%

90943-85477 (176420)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$8.76

Value

$12

PnL

+$3.24

Record

56%

58419-45082 (103501)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$3.31

Value

—

PnL

-$3.31

Record

63%

52248-31272 (83520)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$4.4

Value

—

PnL

-$4.4

Record

58%

60853-44436 (105289)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$7.3

Value

—

PnL

-$7.3

Record

64%

40419-23136 (63555)

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Sign in with your wallet to post.

Market Info

Condition ID

0xfaf7c9df...9b2575

Slug

xrp-updown-15m-1793478600

Traders in this Market

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819

Down — $147.39

uninformedfloww

Arbitrage — excluded

aaa221

Down — $46.15

BoneOhio

Up — $0

antsaslyku

Up — $0

dvasdkasodk

Down — $8.1

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $12

UpandDownSyndrome

Up — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $0

ohioism

Up — $0

Trade on Polymarket