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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - October 31, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET

Resolved Up. 88% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Down 88%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$194.51

Combined PnL

-$119.05

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up1 trader

Total Value$100

Total Shares100

Combined PnL+$1

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares191

Combined PnL-$120.05

Up — 13%Down — 87%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100	Downavg 27.5¢	$44.38	$94.51	+$50.13	63% 52223-31187 (83410)
└ Up leg	Upavg 14.1¢	$13.34	$94.51	+$81.17
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.5¢	$31.04	—	-$31.04
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$99	$100	+$1	74% 102835-36488 (139323)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 58.3¢	$61.76	—	-$61.76	57% 71318-54356 (125674)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 48.6¢	$51.95	—	-$40.69	64% 24172-13343 (37515)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 35¢	$5.83	—	-$5.83	56% 58383-45054 (103437)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 32¢	$3.3	—	-$3.3	62% 44015-27038 (71053)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 65¢	$3.35	—	-$3.35	66% 112359-59057 (171416)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 32¢	$3.2	—	-$3.2	58% 60824-44408 (105232)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 28.3¢	$1.92	—	-$1.92	52% 90876-85429 (176305)

UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100

Invested

$44.38

Value

$94.51

PnL

+$50.13

Record

63%

52223-31187 (83410)

Both legs:

Up$13.3414.1¢+$81.17

Down$31.0427.5¢-$31.04

Invested

$99

Value

$100

PnL

+$1

Record

74%

102835-36488 (139323)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$61.76

Value

—

PnL

-$61.76

Record

57%

71318-54356 (125674)

Invested

$51.95

Value

—

PnL

-$40.69

Record

64%

24172-13343 (37515)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$5.83

Value

—

PnL

-$5.83

Record

56%

58383-45054 (103437)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$3.3

Value

—

PnL

-$3.3

Record

62%

44015-27038 (71053)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$3.35

Value

—

PnL

-$3.35

Record

66%

112359-59057 (171416)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$3.2

Value

—

PnL

-$3.2

Record

58%

60824-44408 (105232)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.92

Value

—

PnL

-$1.92

Record

52%

90876-85429 (176305)

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x073198e9...6d5223

Slug

xrp-updown-15m-1793472300

Traders in this Market

UpandDownSyndrome

Arbitrage — excluded

BoneOhio

Up — $100

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

aaa221

Down — $0

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $0

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $0

antsaslyku

Down — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $0

dvasdkasodk

Down — $0

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