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UpUpDown
UpandDownSyndrome<$100UpDownDown
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - October 30, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Down 60%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$277.71
Combined PnL
-$18.92
Smart Money Signal
Down
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up2 traders
Total Value$77.71
Total Shares78
Combined PnL+$7.87
Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares144
Combined PnL-$26.79
Up — 40%Down — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 72¢ | $184.78 | $200 | +$15.22 | 68% 99525-47913 (147438) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 72¢ | $144 | $200 | +$56 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 16.8¢ | $40.78 | — | -$40.78 | |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 84.4¢ | $37.09 | $43.94 | +$6.86 | 64% 23206-12791 (35997) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 17.3¢ | $22.94 | — | -$22.94 | 57% 70901-53981 (124882) |
UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 97¢ | $32.75 | $33.76 | +$1.01 | 63% 51921-30603 (82524) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Downavg 48.9¢ | $2.75 | — | -$2.75 | 46% 7940-9367 (17307) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 20¢ | $1.1 | — | -$1.1 | 52% 90329-84819 (175148) |
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100Invested
$184.78
Value
$200
PnL
+$15.22
Record
68%
99525-47913 (147438)
Both legs:
Up$14472¢+$56
Down$40.7816.8¢-$40.78
AA
aaa221<$100Invested
$37.09
Value
$43.94
PnL
+$6.86
Record
64%
23206-12791 (35997)
UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100Invested
$22.94
Value
—
PnL
-$22.94
Record
57%
70901-53981 (124882)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$32.75
Value
$33.76
PnL
+$1.01
Record
63%
51921-30603 (82524)
38
38791873984189CTR<$100Invested
$2.75
Value
—
PnL
-$2.75
Record
46%
7940-9367 (17307)
DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100Invested
$1.1
Value
—
PnL
-$1.1
Record
52%
90329-84819 (175148)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x58d0998e...353751
Slug
xrp-updown-15m-1793369700