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UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100UpDownUp
ohioismCTR<$100DownUp
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - October 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$100.42
Combined PnL
-$63.52
Smart Money Signal
Down
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares102
Combined PnL-$85.35
Up2 traders
Total Value$39.49
Total Shares39
Combined PnL+$21.83
Down — 50%Up — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $99.65 | $60.94 | -$38.71 | 63% 51496-30306 (81802) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 98¢ | $59.72 | $60.94 | +$1.22 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 95.1¢ | $39.93 | — | -$39.93 | |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 56.9¢ | $84.02 | — | -$84.02 | 66% 111803-58146 (169949) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 47.6¢ | $33.89 | $34.49 | +$21.68 | 65% 22283-12231 (34514) |
ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 21¢ | $1.33 | — | -$1.33 | 64% 39836-22759 (62595) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 97¢ | $4.85 | $5 | +$0.15 | 52% 89734-84193 (173927) |
UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100Invested
$99.65
Value
$60.94
PnL
-$38.71
Record
63%
51496-30306 (81802)
Both legs:
Up$59.7298¢+$1.22
Down$39.9395.1¢-$39.93
AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100Invested
$84.02
Value
—
PnL
-$84.02
Record
66%
111803-58146 (169949)
AA
aaa221<$100Invested
$33.89
Value
$34.49
PnL
+$21.68
Record
65%
22283-12231 (34514)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$1.33
Value
—
PnL
-$1.33
Record
64%
39836-22759 (62595)
DV
dvasdkasodk<$100Invested
$4.85
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.15
Record
52%
89734-84193 (173927)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xd7a91378...16b197
Slug
xrp-updown-15m-1793263500