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UpUp
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Up
ohioismCTR<$100UpDown
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - October 28, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
3
Up 67%
2 arb excluded
Total Value
$136.78
Combined PnL
-$48.62
Smart Money Signal
Up
2 of 3 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares77
Combined PnL-$53.94
Down1 trader
Total Value$14
Total Shares14
Combined PnL+$5.32
Up — 67%Down — 33%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN antsaslykuARB<$100 | Upavg 58.1¢ | $76.86 | $70.84 | -$6.02 | 66% 111604-57865 (169469) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 58.1¢ | $48.77 | — | -$48.77 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.7¢ | $28.09 | $70.84 | +$42.75 | |
AA aaa221ARB<$100 | Upavg 56.9¢ | $92.86 | $51.94 | +$0.83 | 64% 21886-12047 (33933) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.9¢ | $29.17 | — | -$26.85 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47.2¢ | $24.5 | $51.94 | +$27.69 | |
wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | $36.18 | — | -$36.18 | 58% 12525-9169 (21694) |
ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 74¢ | $17.76 | — | -$17.76 | 64% 39757-22720 (62477) |
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100 | Downavg 62¢ | $8.68 | $14 | +$5.32 | 47% 398-455 (853) |
AN
antsaslykuARB<$100Invested
$76.86
Value
$70.84
PnL
-$6.02
Record
66%
111604-57865 (169469)
Both legs:
Up$48.7758.1¢-$48.77
Down$28.0939.7¢+$42.75
AA
aaa221ARB<$100Invested
$92.86
Value
$51.94
PnL
+$0.83
Record
64%
21886-12047 (33933)
Both legs:
Up$29.1756.9¢-$26.85
Down$24.547.2¢+$27.69
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$36.18
Value
—
PnL
-$36.18
Record
58%
12525-9169 (21694)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$17.76
Value
—
PnL
-$17.76
Record
64%
39757-22720 (62477)
0X
0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100Invested
$8.68
Value
$14
PnL
+$5.32
Record
47%
398-455 (853)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xc0cceccd...33a8ee
Slug
xrp-updown-15m-1793227500