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DownDownDownDown
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Down
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - October 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET
Resolved Up. 100% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
Down 100%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$45.48
Combined PnL
-$187.98
Smart Money Signal
Down
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares248
Combined PnL-$187.98
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 60.6¢ | $105.23 | — | -$105.23 | 57% 69604-52928 (122532) |
AN antsaslykuARB<$100 | Downavg 56.1¢ | $41.46 | $45.48 | +$4.02 | 66% 111454-57709 (169163) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56.1¢ | $28.47 | — | -$28.47 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 28.6¢ | $12.99 | $45.48 | +$32.49 | |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 77.4¢ | $65.2 | — | -$64.1 | 65% 21441-11773 (33214) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $7.12 | — | -$7.12 | 52% 89215-83682 (172897) |
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $11.53 | — | -$11.53 | 63% 51064-30076 (81140) |
UN
uninformedflowwCTRInvested
$105.23
Value
—
PnL
-$105.23
Record
57%
69604-52928 (122532)
AN
antsaslykuARB<$100Invested
$41.46
Value
$45.48
PnL
+$4.02
Record
66%
111454-57709 (169163)
Both legs:
Down$28.4756.1¢-$28.47
Up$12.9928.6¢+$32.49
AA
aaa221CTR<$100Invested
$65.2
Value
—
PnL
-$64.1
Record
65%
21441-11773 (33214)
DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100Invested
$7.12
Value
—
PnL
-$7.12
Record
52%
89215-83682 (172897)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$11.53
Value
—
PnL
-$11.53
Record
63%
51064-30076 (81140)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x3e5b60fe...7bae7a
Slug
xrp-updown-15m-1793172600