XRP Up or Down on November 7?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 94¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Down
5
Down 100%
$1.4K
$129.03
85.1¢ → 94.5¢
+11% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Downavg 84.9¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | +$122.9 | 65% 3106-1654 (4760) |
AL almach | Downavg 88.1¢ | $143.7 | $95.55 | +$1.84 | 55% 50268-41869 (92137) |
TO Tokor<$100 | Downavg 83.1¢ | $45.7 | $49.23 | +$3.53 | 62% 880-543 (1423) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 87.2¢ | $143.97 | $44.73 | +$0.76 | 55% 52367-42838 (95205) |
GE getbipped<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $5.03 | $5.03 | +$0 | 50% 260-255 (515) |
Invested
$1,278.02
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$122.9
Record
65%
3106-1654 (4760)
Invested
$143.7
Value
$95.55
PnL
+$1.84
Record
55%
50268-41869 (92137)
Invested
$45.7
Value
$49.23
PnL
+$3.53
Record
62%
880-543 (1423)
Invested
$143.97
Value
$44.73
PnL
+$0.76
Record
55%
52367-42838 (95205)
Invested
$5.03
Value
$5.03
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
260-255 (515)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.