Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (82%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

XRP Up or Down on November 10?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Up (40%) · Up at 19¢ · $294 held · ends Nov 10

Up19¢Down81¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 40%

Total Value

$293.69

Combined PnL

-$23.82

Smart Money Entry

35.7¢ → 18.5¢

-48% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Down 82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up19%

Down82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up2 traders

Total Value$189.24

Total Shares549

Combined PnL-$5.36

Down3 traders

Total Value$104.45

Total Shares156

Combined PnL-$18.46

Up — 40%Down — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR	Upavg 48.5¢	$130.73	$134.83	+$4.1	61% 38-24 (62)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 75.5¢	$68.69	$69.58	+$0.89	38% 253-408 (661)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Upavg 23.4¢	$66.37	$54.41	-$9.46	40% 29-43 (72)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 80¢	$40	$25	-$15	50% 3491-3532 (7023)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 72¢	$14.22	$9.88	-$4.35	39% 256-397 (653)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR

Invested

$130.73

Value

$134.83

PnL

+$4.1

Record

61%

38-24 (62)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$68.69

Value

$69.58

PnL

+$0.89

Record

38%

253-408 (661)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Invested

$66.37

Value

$54.41

PnL

-$9.46

Record

40%

29-43 (72)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$40

Value

$25

PnL

-$15

Record

50%

3491-3532 (7023)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$14.22

Value

$9.88

PnL

-$4.35

Record

39%

256-397 (653)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Down 82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.6%

18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$385.46

Max Loss

-$100.00

485.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.