Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Tamara Zidansek, while the market favors Julia Grabher (69%). 10 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Sopo: Tamara Zidansek vs Julia Grabher

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Tamara Zidansek (67%) · Tamara Zidansek at 32¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16

Tamara Zidansek32¢Julia Grabher68¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tamara Zidansek

Consensus Traders

Tamara Zidansek 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$11.61

Smart Money Entry

47.7¢ → 31.5¢

-34% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralTamara Zidansek at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tamara Zidansek

10 of 15 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Julia Grabher 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Tamara Zidansek32%

Julia Grabher69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tamara Zidansek10 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,498

Combined PnL-$10.67

Julia Grabher5 traders

Total Value$312.8

Total Shares527

Combined PnL+$22.28

Tamara Zidansek — 67%Julia Grabher — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888CTR	Tamara Zidansekavg 48¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	-$14.97	—
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Tamara Zidansekavg 41¢	$159.95	$168.01	+$2.33	—
└ Tamara Zidansek leg	Tamara Zidansekavg 41¢	$105.78	$107.07	+$1.29
└ Julia Grabher leg	Julia Grabheravg 52¢	$54.17	$60.94	+$1.04
TH thestingsnake	Julia Grabheravg 57.6¢	$121.05	$141.75	+$20.7	—
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Julia Grabheravg 51¢	$66.56	$67.16	+$0.6	—
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Tamara Zidansekavg 47¢	$61.36	$63.32	+$1.96	—
MA MadridTime<$100	Julia Grabheravg 58¢	$63.22	$62.68	-$0.55	—
1L 1lovejumpCTR<$100	Tamara Zidansekavg 51.1¢	$56.2	$55.55	-$0.65	—
RN1CTR<$100	Tamara Zidansekavg 47¢	$47.42	$48.94	+$3.53	—
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Tamara Zidansekavg 37¢	$33.59	$33.14	-$0.45	—
machinelearned<$100	Julia Grabheravg 54¢	$21.6	$21.8	+$0.2	—
LI LightParadox<$100	Julia Grabheravg 48¢	$18.09	$19.41	+$1.32	—
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Tamara Zidansekavg 48.6¢	$16.31	$16.28	-$0.03	—
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Tamara Zidansekavg 45¢	$6.75	$6.83	+$0.08	—
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Tamara Zidansekavg 41¢	$4.16	$4.21	+$0.05	—
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Tamara Zidansekavg 51¢	$4.07	$3.88	-$0.2	—
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Tamara Zidansekavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.43	+$0.02	—

0xheavy888CTR

Tamara Zidansek

Invested

$1,437.31

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$14.97

Record

—

38791873984189ARB<$100

Tamara Zidansek

Invested

$159.95

Value

$168.01

PnL

+$2.33

Record

—

Both legs:

Tamara Zidansek$105.7841¢+$1.29

Julia Grabher$54.1752¢+$1.04

thestingsnake

Julia Grabher

Invested

$121.05

Value

$141.75

PnL

+$20.7

Record

—

omnibus-076daa<$100

Julia Grabher

Invested

$66.56

Value

$67.16

PnL

+$0.6

Record

—

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Tamara Zidansek

Invested

$61.36

Value

$63.32

PnL

+$1.96

Record

—

MadridTime<$100

Julia Grabher

Invested

$63.22

Value

$62.68

PnL

-$0.55

Record

—

1lovejumpCTR<$100

Tamara Zidansek

Invested

$56.2

Value

$55.55

PnL

-$0.65

Record

—

RN1CTR<$100

Tamara Zidansek

Invested

$47.42

Value

$48.94

PnL

+$3.53

Record

—

LimousinCTR<$100

Tamara Zidansek

Invested

$33.59

Value

$33.14

PnL

-$0.45

Record

—

machinelearned<$100

Julia Grabher

Invested

$21.6

Value

$21.8

PnL

+$0.2

Record

—

LightParadox<$100

Julia Grabher

Invested

$18.09

Value

$19.41

PnL

+$1.32

Record

—

Pan9XCTR<$100

Tamara Zidansek

Invested

$16.31

Value

$16.28

PnL

-$0.03

Record

—

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Tamara Zidansek

Invested

$6.75

Value

$6.83

PnL

+$0.08

Record

—

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Tamara Zidansek

Invested

$4.16

Value

$4.21

PnL

+$0.05

Record

—

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Tamara Zidansek

Invested

$4.07

Value

$3.88

PnL

-$0.2

Record

—

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Tamara Zidansek

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.43

PnL

+$0.02

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralTamara Zidansek at 32%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Tamara Zidansek

10 of 15 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Julia Grabher 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tamara Zidansek wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.6%

31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$197.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

297.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.