Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Elizara Yaneva, while the market favors Oksana Selekhmeteva (51%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Courmayeur: Elizara Yaneva vs Oksana Selekhmeteva

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Elizara Yaneva (75%) · Elizara Yaneva at 50¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 4

Elizara Yaneva50¢Oksana Selekhmeteva50¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Elizara Yaneva

Consensus Traders

Elizara Yaneva 75%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

-$331.12

Smart Money Entry

76.4¢ → 49.5¢

-35% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralElizara Yaneva at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Elizara Yaneva

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Oksana Selekhmeteva 51%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Elizara Yaneva50%

Oksana Selekhmeteva51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Elizara Yaneva9 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares4,590

Combined PnL-$348.01

Oksana Selekhmeteva3 traders

Total Value$380.11

Total Shares975

Combined PnL+$16.89

Elizara Yaneva — 75%Oksana Selekhmeteva — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Elizara Yanevaavg 71.7¢	$4.3K	$4.6K	+$241.94	59% 44610-31007 (75617)
└ Elizara Yaneva leg	Elizara Yanevaavg 71.7¢	$3.5K	$2.9K	-$598.11
└ Oksana Selekhmeteva leg	Oksana Selekhmetevaavg 20.1¢	$825.42	$1.7K	+$840.05
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Elizara Yanevaavg 91¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$243.41	54% 16868-14145 (31013)
VeryLucky888CTR	Elizara Yanevaavg 59.2¢	$761.65	$757.32	+$17.13	58% 40758-29479 (70237)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Elizara Yanevaavg 79.3¢	$1.0K	$690.54	-$126.05	60% 3967-2670 (6637)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Elizara Yanevaavg 72.3¢	$446.88	$408.88	-$37.99	52% 13563-12405 (25968)
└ Elizara Yaneva leg	Elizara Yanevaavg 72.3¢	$324.01	$320.28	-$3.72
└ Oksana Selekhmeteva leg	Oksana Selekhmetevaavg 39.5¢	$122.87	$88.6	-$34.27
AS astapzippo	Oksana Selekhmetevaavg 37.2¢	$347.52	$364.73	+$17.21	56% 2125-1664 (3789)
RN1CTR	Elizara Yanevaavg 63¢	$221.19	$235.43	+$14.24	54% 55721-47803 (103524)
1L 1lovejumpCTR	Elizara Yanevaavg 80.1¢	$490.81	$218.04	-$0.78	54% 630-547 (1177)
HRTradingARB<$100	Elizara Yanevaavg 84.7¢	$120.86	$105.51	-$15.35	53% 3056-2718 (5774)
└ Elizara Yaneva leg	Elizara Yanevaavg 84.7¢	$98.8	$78.12	-$20.68
└ Oksana Selekhmeteva leg	Oksana Selekhmetevaavg 26.6¢	$22.06	$27.39	+$5.33
tradecraftCTR<$100	Elizara Yanevaavg 78.4¢	$69.02	$58.96	-$10.06	52% 5875-5510 (11385)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Elizara Yanevaavg 85¢	$25.6	$25.75	+$0.15	51% 1282-1219 (2501)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Oksana Selekhmetevaavg 39.3¢	$13.85	$13.76	-$0.09	62% 13614-8455 (22069)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Elizara Yanevaavg 60¢	$9	$9.07	+$0.08	47% 2054-2350 (4404)
FL flatbarrelCTR<$100	Elizara Yanevaavg 60¢	$75	$2.15	+$0.69	58% 2735-1960 (4695)
TRCM<$100	Oksana Selekhmetevaavg 37¢	$1.85	$1.63	-$0.23	55% 3915-3147 (7062)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Elizara Yaneva

Invested

$4,333.53

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$241.94

Record

59%

44610-31007 (75617)

Both legs:

Elizara Yaneva$3,508.1171.7¢-$598.11

Oksana Selekhmeteva$825.4220.1¢+$840.05

HomeRunHazardCTR

Elizara Yaneva

Invested

$1,429.03

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$243.41

Record

54%

16868-14145 (31013)

VeryLucky888CTR

Elizara Yaneva

Invested

$761.65

Value

$757.32

PnL

+$17.13

Record

58%

40758-29479 (70237)

thestingsnakeCTR

Elizara Yaneva

Invested

$1,040.49

Value

$690.54

PnL

-$126.05

Record

60%

3967-2670 (6637)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Elizara Yaneva

Invested

$446.88

Value

$408.88

PnL

-$37.99

Record

52%

13563-12405 (25968)

Both legs:

Elizara Yaneva$324.0172.3¢-$3.72

Oksana Selekhmeteva$122.8739.5¢-$34.27

astapzippo

Oksana Selekhmeteva

Invested

$347.52

Value

$364.73

PnL

+$17.21

Record

56%

2125-1664 (3789)

RN1CTR

Elizara Yaneva

Invested

$221.19

Value

$235.43

PnL

+$14.24

Record

54%

55721-47803 (103524)

1lovejumpCTR

Elizara Yaneva

Invested

$490.81

Value

$218.04

PnL

-$0.78

Record

54%

630-547 (1177)

HRTradingARB<$100

Elizara Yaneva

Invested

$120.86

Value

$105.51

PnL

-$15.35

Record

53%

3056-2718 (5774)

Both legs:

Elizara Yaneva$98.884.7¢-$20.68

Oksana Selekhmeteva$22.0626.6¢+$5.33

tradecraftCTR<$100

Elizara Yaneva

Invested

$69.02

Value

$58.96

PnL

-$10.06

Record

52%

5875-5510 (11385)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Elizara Yaneva

Invested

$25.6

Value

$25.75

PnL

+$0.15

Record

51%

1282-1219 (2501)

Lilybaeum<$100

Oksana Selekhmeteva

Invested

$13.85

Value

$13.76

PnL

-$0.09

Record

62%

13614-8455 (22069)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Elizara Yaneva

Invested

Value

$9.07

PnL

+$0.08

Record

47%

2054-2350 (4404)

flatbarrelCTR<$100

Elizara Yaneva

Invested

$75

Value

$2.15

PnL

+$0.69

Record

58%

2735-1960 (4695)

TRCM<$100

Oksana Selekhmeteva

Invested

$1.85

Value

$1.63

PnL

-$0.23

Record

55%

3915-3147 (7062)

Research grade

NeutralElizara Yaneva at 50%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Elizara Yaneva

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Oksana Selekhmeteva 51%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Elizara Yaneva wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.