Chennai Open, Qualification: Mei Yamaguchi vs Zhibek Kulambayeva

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Mei Yamaguchi (88%) · Mei Yamaguchi at 55¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 8

Mei Yamaguchi55¢Zhibek Kulambayeva45¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Mei Yamaguchi

Consensus Traders

Mei Yamaguchi 88%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.1K

Combined PnL

-$118.22

Smart Money Entry

56.4¢ → 54.5¢

-3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralMei Yamaguchi at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mei Yamaguchi

7 of 8 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Mei Yamaguchi55%

Zhibek Kulambayeva46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mei Yamaguchi7 traders

Total Value$10.8K

Total Shares19,376

Combined PnL-$145.68

Zhibek Kulambayeva1 trader

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares7,353

Combined PnL+$27.46

Mei Yamaguchi — 88%Zhibek Kulambayeva — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Mei Yamaguchi. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMei Yamaguchi 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrMei Yamaguchi 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedMei Yamaguchi 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Mei Yamaguchi 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KK kkookkoo	Mei Yamaguchiavg 55.4¢	$9.5K	$9.3K	-$155.99	51% 608-589 (1197)
RN1CTR	Zhibek Kulambayevaavg 45¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$27.46	54% 57141-49402 (106543)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Mei Yamaguchiavg 82.8¢	$1.5K	$2.1K	+$546.43	59% 46876-33139 (80015)
└ Zhibek Kulambayeva leg	Zhibek Kulambayevaavg 24¢	$762.05	$1.3K	+$587.16
└ Mei Yamaguchi leg	Mei Yamaguchiavg 82.8¢	$1.0K	$706.5	-$40.74
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Mei Yamaguchiavg 64.8¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$129.95	52% 13922-12694 (26616)
└ Zhibek Kulambayeva leg	Zhibek Kulambayevaavg 34.1¢	$800.91	$1.1K	+$268.35
└ Mei Yamaguchi leg	Mei Yamaguchiavg 64.8¢	$867.81	$729.41	-$138.39
0X 0x63792b1833fB76595e65Dd0b91CBd8dea8a8c035-1791439997825	Mei Yamaguchiavg 59¢	$841.75	$820.35	-$21.4	48% 99-107 (206)
TRCM	Mei Yamaguchiavg 77¢	$311.85	$321.98	+$6.08	55% 3959-3188 (7147)
TH thestingsnake	Mei Yamaguchiavg 65.3¢	$163.25	$163.9	+$23.45	60% 4098-2761 (6859)
BI BillBenter2026	Mei Yamaguchiavg 77.6¢	$122.56	$125.61	+$3.05	58% 18782-13843 (32625)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Mei Yamaguchiavg 74¢	$8.5	$10	+$0.6	85% 5869-998 (6867)
HRTrading<$100	Mei Yamaguchiavg 73.1¢	$8.44	$6.98	-$1.46	53% 5597-5025 (10622)

kkookkoo

Mei Yamaguchi

Invested

$9,500

Value

$9.3K

PnL

-$155.99

Record

51%

608-589 (1197)

RN1CTR

Zhibek Kulambayeva

Invested

$3,396.16

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$27.46

Record

54%

57141-49402 (106543)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Mei Yamaguchi

Invested

$1,509.29

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$546.43

Record

59%

46876-33139 (80015)

Both legs:

Zhibek Kulambayeva$762.0524¢+$587.16

Mei Yamaguchi$1,017.5582.8¢-$40.74

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Mei Yamaguchi

Invested

$1,668.72

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$129.95

Record

52%

13922-12694 (26616)

Both legs:

Zhibek Kulambayeva$800.9134.1¢+$268.35

Mei Yamaguchi$867.8164.8¢-$138.39

0x63792b1833fB76595e65Dd0b91CBd8dea8a8c035-1791439997825

Mei Yamaguchi

Invested

$841.75

Value

$820.35

PnL

-$21.4

Record

48%

99-107 (206)

TRCM

Mei Yamaguchi

Invested

$311.85

Value

$321.98

PnL

+$6.08

Record

55%

3959-3188 (7147)

thestingsnake

Mei Yamaguchi

Invested

$163.25

Value

$163.9

PnL

+$23.45

Record

60%

4098-2761 (6859)

BillBenter2026

Mei Yamaguchi

Invested

$122.56

Value

$125.61

PnL

+$3.05

Record

58%

18782-13843 (32625)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Mei Yamaguchi

Invested

$8.5

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.6

Record

85%

5869-998 (6867)

HRTrading<$100

Mei Yamaguchi

Invested

$8.44

Value

$6.98

PnL

-$1.46

Record

53%

5597-5025 (10622)

Research grade

NeutralMei Yamaguchi at 55%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Mei Yamaguchi

7 of 8 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Mei Yamaguchi. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMei Yamaguchi 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrMei Yamaguchi 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedMei Yamaguchi 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Mei Yamaguchi 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mei Yamaguchi wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.