Chennai Open, Qualification: Mei Yamaguchi vs Zeel Desai
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Mei Yamaguchi (67%) · Mei Yamaguchi at 100¢ · $939 held · ends Nov 7
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Neutral
Mei Yamaguchi
6
Mei Yamaguchi 67%
$939.44
$39.6
94.6¢ → 100¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralMei Yamaguchi at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Mei Yamaguchiavg 96.7¢ | $433.83 | $433.19 | -$0.64 | 52% 13782-12582 (26364) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Zeel Desaiavg 9¢ | $135 | $157.5 | +$22.5 | 58% 41902-30424 (72326) |
 HRTrading | Mei Yamaguchiavg 94.6¢ | $135.28 | $142.64 | +$7.36 | 53% 4616-4152 (8768) |
 RollAwayTheDew<$100 | Mei Yamaguchiavg 89¢ | $98.04 | $98.59 | +$0.55 | 53% 403-355 (758) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Mei Yamaguchiavg 91.7¢ | $90.3 | $88.09 | -$2.2 | 58% 18650-13710 (32360) |
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100 | Zeel Desaiavg 4¢ | $7.4 | $19.42 | +$12.02 | 60% 4065-2738 (6803) |
Invested
$433.83
Value
$433.19
PnL
-$0.64
Record
52%
13782-12582 (26364)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$135
Value
$157.5
PnL
+$22.5
Record
58%
41902-30424 (72326)
HRTradingInvested
$135.28
Value
$142.64
PnL
+$7.36
Record
53%
4616-4152 (8768)
RollAwayTheDew<$100Invested
$98.04
Value
$98.59
PnL
+$0.55
Record
53%
403-355 (758)
Invested
$90.3
Value
$88.09
PnL
-$2.2
Record
58%
18650-13710 (32360)
Invested
$7.4
Value
$19.42
PnL
+$12.02
Record
60%
4065-2738 (6803)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.