Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Xinyu Wang vs Adithya Karunaratne
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Xinyu Wang (100%) · Xinyu Wang at 92¢ · $108 held · ends Nov 9
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Neutral
Xinyu Wang
3
Xinyu Wang 100%
$108.06
$0.42
91.6¢ → 92¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralXinyu Wang at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888<$100 | Xinyu Wangavg 92¢ | $70 | $64.4 | +$0 | 55% 7418-5961 (13379) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Xinyu Wangavg 91¢ | $38.63 | $39.06 | +$0.42 | 58% 43210-31449 (74659) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Xinyu Wangavg 92¢ | $5 | $4.6 | +$0 | 52% 7592-6886 (14478) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.