Sopo: Alice Tubello vs Julia Riera

15 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Alice Tubello (65%) · Alice Tubello at 100¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 17

Alice Tubello>99¢Julia Riera<1¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alice Tubello

Consensus Traders

Alice Tubello 65%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.6K

Combined PnL

-$203.73

Smart Money Entry

72.7¢ → 100¢

+37% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlice Tubello at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alice Tubello

15 of 23 top traders (65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Alice Tubello100%

Julia Riera0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alice Tubello15 traders

Total Value$14.2K

Total Shares14,546

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Julia Riera8 traders

Total Value$291.99

Total Shares7,515

Combined PnL$-2.7K

Alice Tubello — 65%Julia Riera — 35%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-42 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

58% of non-arb traders are on Alice Tubello. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpJulia Riera 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrAlice Tubello 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedAlice Tubello 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Alice Tubello 56% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Alice Tubelloavg 64.6¢	$3.1K	$4.1K	+$976.3	51% 3162-3063 (6225)
LI Limousin	Alice Tubelloavg 91.7¢	$3.6K	$4.0K	+$328.84	25% 212-653 (865)
TH thestingsnake	Alice Tubelloavg 74.2¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$364.22	17% 71-337 (408)
LI LightParadox	Alice Tubelloavg 70.9¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$80.77	25% 213-642 (855)
BA babybells	Alice Tubelloavg 61.8¢	$949.41	$957.34	+$274.54	17% 77-365 (442)
TH thirdt1me	Alice Tubelloavg 63.5¢	$1.3K	$865.42	+$294.11	37% 68-118 (186)
MA MadridTime	Alice Tubelloavg 46.9¢	$470.24	$572.34	+$102.1	25% 214-632 (846)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Alice Tubelloavg 64.6¢	$307.18	$300.09	-$7.09	56% 3797-2956 (6753)
0xheavy888	Alice Tubelloavg 52¢	$164.24	$217.96	+$53.71	55% 106-85 (191)
38 38791873984189CTR	Julia Rieraavg 55.9¢	$897.8	$183.16	-$611.7	48% 840-912 (1752)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Julia Rieraavg 22.2¢	$181.11	$120.24	-$60.87	54% 1624-1378 (3002)
└ Julia Riera leg	Julia Rieraavg 22.2¢	$138.86	$65.56	-$73.3
└ Alice Tubello leg	Alice Tubelloavg 69.2¢	$42.25	$54.68	+$12.43
EU Eulhunter	Alice Tubelloavg 91¢	$115.64	$88.38	-$27.26	52% 61-57 (118)
PA pauleta23<$100	Alice Tubelloavg 71.2¢	$61.31	$86.06	+$24.75	22% 117-422 (539)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Alice Tubelloavg 84.9¢	$36.5	$42.98	+$6.48	13% 71-461 (532)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Julia Rieraavg 46.5¢	$55.11	$41.46	-$13.66	35% 326-609 (935)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Alice Tubelloavg 51¢	$22.11	$32.51	+$10.4	37% 189-328 (517)
RN1CTR	Julia Rieraavg 51¢	$554.6	$27.21	-$527.39	58% 3756-2709 (6465)
OJ ojg<$100	Alice Tubelloavg 95¢	$19	$18.9	-$0.1	37% 86-144 (230)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Julia Rieraavg 67¢	$89.46	$16.69	-$72.77	63% 151-88 (239)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Julia Rieraavg 68¢	$34	$13.75	-$20.25	52% 5344-4847 (10191)
VeryLucky888<$100	Alice Tubelloavg 52¢	$83	$13.54	+$5.57	49% 231-238 (469)
dips.CTR<$100	Julia Rieraavg 67¢	$37.52	$7	-$30.52	41% 195-276 (471)
VE VenusianCTR	Julia Rieraavg 29¢	$1.4K	$2.45	$-1.4K	25% 212-653 (865)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Julia Rieraavg 1¢	$0.5	$0.27	-$0.23	2% 7-370 (377)

6512395314597884

Alice Tubello

Invested

$3,130.43

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$976.3

Record

51%

3162-3063 (6225)

Limousin

Alice Tubello

Invested

$3,645.37

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$328.84

Record

25%

212-653 (865)

thestingsnake

Alice Tubello

Invested

$1,508.34

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$364.22

Record

17%

71-337 (408)

LightParadox

Alice Tubello

Invested

$1,099.08

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$80.77

Record

25%

213-642 (855)

babybells

Alice Tubello

Invested

$949.41

Value

$957.34

PnL

+$274.54

Record

17%

77-365 (442)

thirdt1me

Alice Tubello

Invested

$1,267.16

Value

$865.42

PnL

+$294.11

Record

37%

68-118 (186)

MadridTime

Alice Tubello

Invested

$470.24

Value

$572.34

PnL

+$102.1

Record

25%

214-632 (846)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Alice Tubello

Invested

$307.18

Value

$300.09

PnL

-$7.09

Record

56%

3797-2956 (6753)

0xheavy888

Alice Tubello

Invested

$164.24

Value

$217.96

PnL

+$53.71

Record

55%

106-85 (191)

38791873984189CTR

Julia Riera

Invested

$897.8

Value

$183.16

PnL

-$611.7

Record

48%

840-912 (1752)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Julia Riera

Invested

$181.11

Value

$120.24

PnL

-$60.87

Record

54%

1624-1378 (3002)

Both legs:

Julia Riera$138.8622.2¢-$73.3

Alice Tubello$42.2569.2¢+$12.43

Eulhunter

Alice Tubello

Invested

$115.64

Value

$88.38

PnL

-$27.26

Record

52%

61-57 (118)

pauleta23<$100

Alice Tubello

Invested

$61.31

Value

$86.06

PnL

+$24.75

Record

22%

117-422 (539)

BillBenter2026<$100

Alice Tubello

Invested

$36.5

Value

$42.98

PnL

+$6.48

Record

13%

71-461 (532)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Julia Riera

Invested

$55.11

Value

$41.46

PnL

-$13.66

Record

35%

326-609 (935)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Alice Tubello

Invested

$22.11

Value

$32.51

PnL

+$10.4

Record

37%

189-328 (517)

RN1CTR

Julia Riera

Invested

$554.6

Value

$27.21

PnL

-$527.39

Record

58%

3756-2709 (6465)

ojg<$100

Alice Tubello

Invested

$19

Value

$18.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

37%

86-144 (230)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Julia Riera

Invested

$89.46

Value

$16.69

PnL

-$72.77

Record

63%

151-88 (239)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Julia Riera

Invested

$34

Value

$13.75

PnL

-$20.25

Record

52%

5344-4847 (10191)

VeryLucky888<$100

Alice Tubello

Invested

$83

Value

$13.54

PnL

+$5.57

Record

49%

231-238 (469)

dips.CTR<$100

Julia Riera

Invested

$37.52

Value

PnL

-$30.52

Record

41%

195-276 (471)

VenusianCTR

Julia Riera

Invested

$1,416.99

Value

$2.45

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

25%

212-653 (865)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Julia Riera

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$0.23

Record

7-370 (377)

Research grade

NeutralAlice Tubello at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Alice Tubello

15 of 23 top traders (65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-42 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

58% of non-arb traders are on Alice Tubello. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpJulia Riera 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrAlice Tubello 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedAlice Tubello 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Alice Tubello 56% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alice Tubello wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.