Curitiba: Alice Tubello vs Jazmin Ortenzi

12 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Alice Tubello (52%) · Alice Tubello at 100¢ · $44K held · ends Nov 5

Alice Tubello>99¢Jazmin Ortenzi<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alice Tubello

Consensus Traders

Alice Tubello 52%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$44.5K

Combined PnL

-$141.69

Smart Money Entry

56.6¢ → 100¢

+77% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlice Tubello at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alice Tubello

12 of 23 top traders (52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Alice Tubello100%

Jazmin Ortenzi0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alice Tubello12 traders

Total Value$32.7K

Total Shares35,178

Combined PnL+$10.5K

Jazmin Ortenzi11 traders

Total Value$11.1K

Total Shares34,364

Combined PnL$-10.7K

Alice Tubello — 52%Jazmin Ortenzi — 48%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Alice Tubelloavg 50.6¢	$10.0K	$19.1K	+$9.2K	54% 56351-48500 (104851)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Jazmin Ortenziavg 54.7¢	$16.2K	$7.1K	$-9.1K	59% 45388-31736 (77124)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Alice Tubelloavg 60.8¢	$5.2K	$6.7K	+$1.5K	48% 776-842 (1618)
IV Ivan948CTR	Jazmin Ortenziavg 48¢	$3.3K	$2.7K	-$583.82	44% 67-86 (153)
poshposh	Alice Tubelloavg 83¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$35.28	59% 9968-6940 (16908)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Alice Tubelloavg 62.6¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$354.01	52% 13735-12534 (26269)
HV HVAB	Alice Tubelloavg 85.4¢	$3.6K	$1.6K	-$599.79	76% 567-182 (749)
38 38791873984189	Alice Tubelloavg 46.5¢	$646.73	$901.74	+$255.01	46% 8032-9481 (17513)
1L 1lovejump	Alice Tubelloavg 65.5¢	$1.6K	$522.38	-$60.07	53% 655-576 (1231)
IL IlliascaCTR	Jazmin Ortenziavg 44.9¢	$800	$436.53	-$363.47	65% 273-149 (422)
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR	Jazmin Ortenziavg 53.5¢	$300	$317	+$17	58% 219-157 (376)
RE RebornAthena	Alice Tubelloavg 46.5¢	$400	$288.15	-$111.85	53% 2005-1803 (3808)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Jazmin Ortenziavg 31.9¢	$963.25	$239.84	-$604.37	60% 4045-2729 (6774)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Jazmin Ortenziavg 37.3¢	$161.97	$175.05	+$13.08	38% 3225-5275 (8500)
└ Jazmin Ortenzi leg	Jazmin Ortenziavg 37.3¢	$122.32	$113.16	-$9.16
└ Alice Tubello leg	Alice Tubelloavg 42¢	$39.65	$61.89	+$22.24
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Jazmin Ortenziavg 33¢	$111.62	$128.53	+$16.91	49% 19022-19422 (38444)
HRTrading	Alice Tubelloavg 35.5¢	$54.08	$127.26	-$4.54	52% 4041-3673 (7714)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Jazmin Ortenziavg 58¢	$70.54	$72.36	+$1.82	50% 24907-24601 (49508)
BI BillBenter2026CTR	Jazmin Ortenziavg 68.8¢	$122.55	$67.64	-$54.91	58% 18592-13652 (32244)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Alice Tubelloavg 55.2¢	$54.01	$40	+$1.49	85% 5114-869 (5983)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Alice Tubelloavg 41¢	$38.13	$37.67	-$0.47	50% 3805-3765 (7570)
PA pauleta23<$100	Alice Tubelloavg 81¢	$13.95	$15.93	+$1.98	67% 23282-11687 (34969)
AW awesoCTR<$100	Jazmin Ortenziavg 71¢	$12.52	$6.7	-$5.82	49% 42-44 (86)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100	Jazmin Ortenziavg 23¢	$5.97	$6.36	+$0.39	55% 1727-1418 (3145)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Jazmin Ortenziavg 41¢	$2.05	$1.9	-$0.03	47% 2277-2560 (4837)

RN1

Alice Tubello

Invested

$9,985.31

Value

$19.1K

PnL

+$9.2K

Record

54%

56351-48500 (104851)

UpTheBluesCTR

Jazmin Ortenzi

Invested

$16,209.27

Value

$7.1K

PnL

$-9.1K

Record

59%

45388-31736 (77124)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Alice Tubello

Invested

$5,209.92

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

48%

776-842 (1618)

Ivan948CTR

Jazmin Ortenzi

Invested

$3,310.49

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$583.82

Record

44%

67-86 (153)

poshposh

Alice Tubello

Invested

$1,662.8

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$35.28

Record

59%

9968-6940 (16908)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Alice Tubello

Invested

$1,295.86

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$354.01

Record

52%

13735-12534 (26269)

HVAB

Alice Tubello

Invested

$3,552.69

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$599.79

Record

76%

567-182 (749)

38791873984189

Alice Tubello

Invested

$646.73

Value

$901.74

PnL

+$255.01

Record

46%

8032-9481 (17513)

1lovejump

Alice Tubello

Invested

$1,640.84

Value

$522.38

PnL

-$60.07

Record

53%

655-576 (1231)

IlliascaCTR

Jazmin Ortenzi

Invested

$800

Value

$436.53

PnL

-$363.47

Record

65%

273-149 (422)

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR

Jazmin Ortenzi

Invested

$300

Value

$317

PnL

+$17

Record

58%

219-157 (376)

RebornAthena

Alice Tubello

Invested

$400

Value

$288.15

PnL

-$111.85

Record

53%

2005-1803 (3808)

thestingsnakeCTR

Jazmin Ortenzi

Invested

$963.25

Value

$239.84

PnL

-$604.37

Record

60%

4045-2729 (6774)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Jazmin Ortenzi

Invested

$161.97

Value

$175.05

PnL

+$13.08

Record

38%

3225-5275 (8500)

Both legs:

Jazmin Ortenzi$122.3237.3¢-$9.16

Alice Tubello$39.6542¢+$22.24

omnibus-076daaCTR

Jazmin Ortenzi

Invested

$111.62

Value

$128.53

PnL

+$16.91

Record

49%

19022-19422 (38444)

HRTrading

Alice Tubello

Invested

$54.08

Value

$127.26

PnL

-$4.54

Record

52%

4041-3673 (7714)

sentrioCTR<$100

Jazmin Ortenzi

Invested

$70.54

Value

$72.36

PnL

+$1.82

Record

50%

24907-24601 (49508)

BillBenter2026CTR

Jazmin Ortenzi

Invested

$122.55

Value

$67.64

PnL

-$54.91

Record

58%

18592-13652 (32244)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Alice Tubello

Invested

$54.01

Value

$40

PnL

+$1.49

Record

85%

5114-869 (5983)

NatoAlfista<$100

Alice Tubello

Invested

$38.13

Value

$37.67

PnL

-$0.47

Record

50%

3805-3765 (7570)

pauleta23<$100

Alice Tubello

Invested

$13.95

Value

$15.93

PnL

+$1.98

Record

67%

23282-11687 (34969)

awesoCTR<$100

Jazmin Ortenzi

Invested

$12.52

Value

$6.7

PnL

-$5.82

Record

49%

42-44 (86)

VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100

Jazmin Ortenzi

Invested

$5.97

Value

$6.36

PnL

+$0.39

Record

55%

1727-1418 (3145)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Jazmin Ortenzi

Invested

$2.05

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$0.03

Record

47%

2277-2560 (4837)

Research grade

NeutralAlice Tubello at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Alice Tubello

12 of 23 top traders (52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alice Tubello wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.