Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Alice Tubello, while the market favors Julia Grabher (55%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Curitiba: Alice Tubello vs Julia Grabher
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Alice Tubello (100%) · Alice Tubello at 45¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Alice Tubello
4
Alice Tubello 100%
$1.6K
-$33.08
44¢ → 45¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralAlice Tubello at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Julia Grabher 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Alice Tubelloavg 44¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$30 | 58% 42636-31031 (73667) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Alice Tubelloavg 44.3¢ | $128.94 | $125.02 | -$3.92 | 57% 29212-21600 (50812) |
BA Bagwell306CTR | Alice Tubelloavg 43¢ | $104.23 | $104.23 | +$0 | 58% 4066-2890 (6956) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Alice Tubelloavg 44¢ | $178.99 | $74.64 | +$0.84 | 55% 7313-5880 (13193) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,320
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$30
Record
58%
42636-31031 (73667)
Invested
$128.94
Value
$125.02
PnL
-$3.92
Record
57%
29212-21600 (50812)
Invested
$104.23
Value
$104.23
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
4066-2890 (6956)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$178.99
Value
$74.64
PnL
+$0.84
Record
55%
7313-5880 (13193)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.