Curitiba: Alice Tubello vs Luna Cinalli
10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Alice Tubello (91%) · Alice Tubello at 100¢ · $30K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Alice Tubello
11
Alice Tubello 91%
$29.9K
$653.67
96.8¢ → 99.7¢
+3% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralAlice Tubello at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Alice Tubelloavg 97.3¢ | $24.3K | $24.9K | +$607.84 | 59% 44606-31005 (75611) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Alice Tubelloavg 94¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$61.56 | 54% 16865-14143 (31008) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Alice Tubelloavg 94.7¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$9.65 | 52% 13555-12401 (25956) |
TH thestingsnake | Alice Tubelloavg 97.1¢ | $818.7 | $598.04 | +$5.34 | 60% 3963-2666 (6629) |
GH ghostorder | Alice Tubelloavg 94¢ | $485.82 | $467.73 | -$18.09 | 62% 4264-2632 (6896) |
1L 1lovejump | Alice Tubelloavg 95¢ | $695.31 | $321.71 | +$6.19 | 53% 625-545 (1170) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Alice Tubelloavg 90¢ | $47.4 | $47.66 | +$0.26 | 58% 40754-29472 (70226) |
 RN1<$100 | Alice Tubelloavg 97.2¢ | $22.49 | $22.06 | -$0.43 | 54% 55713-47799 (103512) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Alice Tubelloavg 91¢ | $4.55 | $4.53 | -$0.02 | 47% 2044-2347 (4391) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Alice Tubelloavg 95¢ | $4.75 | $4.53 | -$0.22 | 58% 18397-13501 (31898) |
EF efntrickCTR<$100 | Luna Cinalliavg 5¢ | $1 | $1.9 | +$0.9 | 48% 3655-3914 (7569) |
Invested
$24,263.04
Value
$24.9K
PnL
+$607.84
Record
59%
44606-31005 (75611)
Invested
$2,098.75
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$61.56
Record
54%
16865-14143 (31008)
Invested
$1,398.82
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$9.65
Record
52%
13555-12401 (25956)
Invested
$818.7
Value
$598.04
PnL
+$5.34
Record
60%
3963-2666 (6629)
Invested
$485.82
Value
$467.73
PnL
-$18.09
Record
62%
4264-2632 (6896)
Invested
$695.31
Value
$321.71
PnL
+$6.19
Record
53%
625-545 (1170)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$47.4
Value
$47.66
PnL
+$0.26
Record
58%
40754-29472 (70226)
RN1<$100Invested
$22.49
Value
$22.06
PnL
-$0.43
Record
54%
55713-47799 (103512)
Invested
$4.55
Value
$4.53
PnL
-$0.02
Record
47%
2044-2347 (4391)
Invested
$4.75
Value
$4.53
PnL
-$0.22
Record
58%
18397-13501 (31898)
Invested
$1
Value
$1.9
PnL
+$0.9
Record
48%
3655-3914 (7569)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
UpTheBlues
Alice Tubello — $24.9K
HomeRunHazard
Alice Tubello — $2.2K
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
Alice Tubello — $1.4K
thestingsnake
Alice Tubello — $598.04
ghostorder
Alice Tubello — $467.73
1lovejump
Alice Tubello — $321.71
VeryLucky888
Alice Tubello — $47.66
RN1
Alice Tubello — $22.06
ameisgoat11
Alice Tubello — $4.53
BillBenter2026
Alice Tubello — $4.53