Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Xinran Sun, while the market favors Maria Timofeeva (63%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Guangzhou Open: Maria Timofeeva vs Xinran Sun
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Xinran Sun (40%) · Xinran Sun at 38¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Xinran Sun
5
Xinran Sun 40%
$4.7K
$36
36.8¢ → 37.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralXinran Sun at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Maria Timofeeva 63%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR trabaCTR | Xinran Sunavg 37¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | +$41.8 | — |
 VeryLucky888 | Maria Timofeevaavg 63¢ | $630.11 | $640 | +$9.89 | 58% 40871-29553 (70424) |
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR | Xinran Sunavg 36¢ | $604.75 | $604.75 | +$0 | 54% 572-492 (1064) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Maria Timofeevaavg 65.5¢ | $340.63 | $324.89 | -$15.74 | 49% 18665-19093 (37758) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Maria Timofeevaavg 63¢ | $3.15 | $3.2 | +$0.05 | 47% 2091-2369 (4460) |
Invested
$3,093.34
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$41.8
Record
—
VeryLucky888Invested
$630.11
Value
$640
PnL
+$9.89
Record
58%
40871-29553 (70424)
Invested
$604.75
Value
$604.75
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
572-492 (1064)
Invested
$340.63
Value
$324.89
PnL
-$15.74
Record
49%
18665-19093 (37758)
Invested
$3.15
Value
$3.2
PnL
+$0.05
Record
47%
2091-2369 (4460)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.