Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Lilli Tagger, while the market favors Han Shi (51%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Set Handicap: Lilli Tagger (-1.5) vs Han Shi (+1.5)

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Lilli Tagger (86%) · Lilli Tagger at 50¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 6

Lilli Tagger50¢Han Shi50¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lilli Tagger

Consensus Traders

Lilli Tagger 86%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$278.31

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 49.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralLilli Tagger at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lilli Tagger

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Han Shi 51%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lilli Tagger50%

Han Shi51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lilli Tagger6 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares7,314

Combined PnL+$277.84

Han Shi1 trader

Total Value$43.96

Total Shares95

Combined PnL+$0.47

Lilli Tagger — 86%Han Shi — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Lilli Taggeravg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$105	47% 2466-2765 (5231)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Lilli Taggeravg 49¢	$779.44	$851.02	+$71.58	50% 2495-2485 (4980)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Lilli Taggeravg 50¢	$750	$802.5	+$52.5	53% 5572-4928 (10500)
VeryLucky888CTR	Lilli Taggeravg 49.5¢	$495	$535	+$40	58% 41458-30076 (71534)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Lilli Taggeravg 49.4¢	$107.8	$116.63	+$8.83	58% 28383-20951 (49334)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Han Shiavg 46¢	$43.49	$43.96	+$0.47	49% 18955-19375 (38330)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Lilli Taggeravg 51¢	$2.55	$2.48	-$0.07	47% 2245-2523 (4768)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Lilli Tagger

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$105

Record

47%

2466-2765 (5231)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Lilli Tagger

Invested

$779.44

Value

$851.02

PnL

+$71.58

Record

50%

2495-2485 (4980)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Lilli Tagger

Invested

$750

Value

$802.5

PnL

+$52.5

Record

53%

5572-4928 (10500)

VeryLucky888CTR

Lilli Tagger

Invested

$495

Value

$535

PnL

+$40

Record

58%

41458-30076 (71534)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Lilli Tagger

Invested

$107.8

Value

$116.63

PnL

+$8.83

Record

58%

28383-20951 (49334)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Han Shi

Invested

$43.49

Value

$43.96

PnL

+$0.47

Record

49%

18955-19375 (38330)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Lilli Tagger

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$0.07

Record

47%

2245-2523 (4768)

Research grade

NeutralLilli Tagger at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Lilli Tagger

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Han Shi 51%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lilli Tagger wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.