Guangzhou Open: Lilli Tagger vs Magda Linette
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Lilli Tagger (83%) · Lilli Tagger at 72¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 5
🔬
Research candidate
Lilli Tagger
6
Lilli Tagger 83%
$3.0K
-$8.75
71.9¢ → 71.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
Research candidateLilli Tagger at 72%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Lilli Tagger. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL pltrkr111 | Lilli Taggeravg 72¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$13.89 | 54% 719-608 (1327) |
SE sentrio | Lilli Taggeravg 71.4¢ | $415.98 | $416.42 | +$0.44 | 50% 24874-24575 (49449) |
 VeryLucky888 | Lilli Taggeravg 71.5¢ | $572.53 | $357.51 | +$0.09 | 58% 41203-29875 (71078) |
AS astapzippoCTR | Magda Linetteavg 27.7¢ | $166 | $171 | +$5 | 56% 2134-1678 (3812) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Lilli Taggeravg 72¢ | $60.48 | $60.06 | -$0.42 | 55% 6989-5609 (12598) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Lilli Taggeravg 71¢ | $3.55 | $3.57 | +$0.02 | 47% 2160-2464 (4624) |
Invested
$1,999.99
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$13.89
Record
54%
719-608 (1327)
Invested
$415.98
Value
$416.42
PnL
+$0.44
Record
50%
24874-24575 (49449)
VeryLucky888Invested
$572.53
Value
$357.51
PnL
+$0.09
Record
58%
41203-29875 (71078)
Invested
$166
Value
$171
PnL
+$5
Record
56%
2134-1678 (3812)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$60.48
Value
$60.06
PnL
-$0.42
Record
55%
6989-5609 (12598)
Invested
$3.55
Value
$3.57
PnL
+$0.02
Record
47%
2160-2464 (4624)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.