Guangzhou Open: Lilli Tagger vs Harriet Dart
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Lilli Tagger (33%) · Lilli Tagger at 79¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Lilli Tagger
6
Lilli Tagger 33%
$13.5K
$423.58
76¢ → 79¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralLilli Tagger at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Lilli Tagger. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO monkeymashingkeyboard | Lilli Taggeravg 76¢ | $11.4K | $11.8K | +$375 | 53% 615-540 (1155) |
LI LilybaeumCTR | Harriet Dartavg 21.9¢ | $894.08 | $875.94 | -$18.14 | 61% 13788-8664 (22452) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Harriet Dartavg 21.5¢ | $3.2K | $359.64 | +$59.08 | 58% 42612-31008 (73620) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Harriet Dartavg 21¢ | $216.79 | $221.95 | +$5.16 | 72% 6823-2615 (9438) |
 0xheavy888 | Lilli Taggeravg 76¢ | $136.04 | $140.52 | +$4.48 | 55% 7311-5880 (13191) |
AS astapzippoCTR<$100 | Harriet Dartavg 22.5¢ | $90 | $88 | -$2 | 56% 2159-1707 (3866) |
Invested
$11,399.99
Value
$11.8K
PnL
+$375
Record
53%
615-540 (1155)
Invested
$894.08
Value
$875.94
PnL
-$18.14
Record
61%
13788-8664 (22452)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$3,190.86
Value
$359.64
PnL
+$59.08
Record
58%
42612-31008 (73620)
Invested
$216.79
Value
$221.95
PnL
+$5.16
Record
72%
6823-2615 (9438)
0xheavy888Invested
$136.04
Value
$140.52
PnL
+$4.48
Record
55%
7311-5880 (13191)
Invested
$90
Value
$88
PnL
-$2
Record
56%
2159-1707 (3866)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.