Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Elina Svitolina, while the market favors Mirra Andreeva (53%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Set Handicap: Mirra Andreeva (-1.5) vs Elina Svitolina (+1.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Elina Svitolina (78%) · Elina Svitolina at 48¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 22

Mirra Andreeva53¢Elina Svitolina47¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Elina Svitolina

Consensus Traders

Elina Svitolina 78%

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

$86.92

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 47.5¢

-6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralElina Svitolina at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Elina Svitolina

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Mirra Andreeva 53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Mirra Andreeva53%

Elina Svitolina48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mirra Andreeva2 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,909

Combined PnL-$25.48

Elina Svitolina7 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,720

Combined PnL+$112.4

Mirra Andreeva — 22%Elina Svitolina — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+45 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Elina Svitolina. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrElina Svitolina 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedElina Svitolina 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Elina Svitolina 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL alvahunter	Mirra Andreevaavg 49.7¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$70.52	7% 4-50 (54)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Elina Svitolinaavg 50¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$140	48% 44-48 (92)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Elina Svitolinaavg 51¢	$884.58	$850.9	-$33.68	47% 507-561 (1068)
NO Novelty8CTR	Elina Svitolinaavg 50¢	$378.83	$371.26	-$7.58	11% 21-172 (193)
BA banepir	Mirra Andreevaavg 49¢	$392	$296	-$96	56% 20-16 (36)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Elina Svitolinaavg 50¢	$81.5	$92.91	+$11.41	57% 702-540 (1242)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Elina Svitolinaavg 51¢	$26.38	$25.35	-$1.03	62% 1090-679 (1769)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Elina Svitolinaavg 51.5¢	$10.3	$9.8	-$0.5	43% 875-1153 (2028)
VeryLucky888CTR	Elina Svitolinaavg 50.6¢	$143.49	$3.02	+$3.78	53% 1989-1729 (3718)

alvahunter

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$1,546.36

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$70.52

Record

4-50 (54)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$140

Record

48%

44-48 (92)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$884.58

Value

$850.9

PnL

-$33.68

Record

47%

507-561 (1068)

Novelty8CTR

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$378.83

Value

$371.26

PnL

-$7.58

Record

11%

21-172 (193)

banepir

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$392

Value

$296

PnL

-$96

Record

56%

20-16 (36)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$81.5

Value

$92.91

PnL

+$11.41

Record

57%

702-540 (1242)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$26.38

Value

$25.35

PnL

-$1.03

Record

62%

1090-679 (1769)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$10.3

Value

$9.8

PnL

-$0.5

Record

43%

875-1153 (2028)

VeryLucky888CTR

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$143.49

Value

$3.02

PnL

+$3.78

Record

53%

1989-1729 (3718)

Research grade

NeutralElina Svitolina at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Elina Svitolina

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Mirra Andreeva 53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+45 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Elina Svitolina. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrElina Svitolina 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedElina Svitolina 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Elina Svitolina 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Elina Svitolina wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.