Game Spread: Mirra Andreeva (-3.5) vs Elina Svitolina (+3.5)

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Mirra Andreeva (89%) · Mirra Andreeva at 56¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 22

Mirra Andreeva56¢Elina Svitolina44¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Mirra Andreeva

Consensus Traders

Mirra Andreeva 89%

Total Value

$9.3K

Combined PnL

$452.82

Smart Money Entry

53.2¢ → 56.5¢

+6% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralMirra Andreeva at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mirra Andreeva

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Mirra Andreeva56%

Elina Svitolina44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mirra Andreeva8 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares13,705

Combined PnL+$422.29

Elina Svitolina1 trader

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,053

Combined PnL+$30.53

Mirra Andreeva — 89%Elina Svitolina — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Mirra Andreeva. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMirra Andreeva 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedMirra Andreeva 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Mirra Andreeva 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
00 0000.	Mirra Andreevaavg 57.9¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$116.4	36% 19-34 (53)
VeryLucky888	Mirra Andreevaavg 53.3¢	$2.6K	$2.2K	+$133.62	53% 1960-1712 (3672)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Elina Svitolinaavg 42¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$30.53	38% 97-161 (258)
GA GamblingAddict12345	Mirra Andreevaavg 49¢	$1,000	$1.2K	+$153.06	57% 63-48 (111)
NO Notradecopy	Mirra Andreevaavg 49¢	$793.86	$915.37	+$121.51	25% 69-208 (277)
HI hi774c	Mirra Andreevaavg 49¢	$647.7	$746.83	+$99.14	26% 250-698 (948)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Mirra Andreevaavg 55¢	$550	$565	+$15	30% 497-1141 (1638)
NO Novelty8	Mirra Andreevaavg 51¢	$148.57	$164.59	+$16.02	11% 21-172 (193)
MO mouzsynapse<$100	Mirra Andreevaavg 55¢	$12.22	$12.56	+$0.33	41% 167-242 (409)

0000.

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$2,342

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$116.4

Record

36%

19-34 (53)

VeryLucky888

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$2,575.15

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$133.62

Record

53%

1960-1712 (3672)

Bagwell306CTR

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$1,282.45

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$30.53

Record

38%

97-161 (258)

GamblingAddict12345

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$153.06

Record

57%

63-48 (111)

Notradecopy

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$793.86

Value

$915.37

PnL

+$121.51

Record

25%

69-208 (277)

hi774c

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$647.7

Value

$746.83

PnL

+$99.14

Record

26%

250-698 (948)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$550

Value

$565

PnL

+$15

Record

30%

497-1141 (1638)

Novelty8

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$148.57

Value

$164.59

PnL

+$16.02

Record

11%

21-172 (193)

mouzsynapse<$100

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$12.22

Value

$12.56

PnL

+$0.33

Record

41%

167-242 (409)

Research grade

NeutralMirra Andreeva at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Mirra Andreeva

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Mirra Andreeva. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMirra Andreeva 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedMirra Andreeva 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Mirra Andreeva 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mirra Andreeva wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.