Guangzhou Open: Xinran Sun vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Mananchaya Sawangkaew (80%) · Mananchaya Sawangkaew at 53¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 3
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Research candidate
Mananchaya Sawangkaew
5
Mananchaya Sawangkaew 80%
$6.3K
$2.6
53.3¢ → 52.5¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
Research candidateMananchaya Sawangkaew at 53%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Mananchaya Sawangkaew. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 stringXXCTR | Xinran Sunavg 47.1¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | -$4.85 | 50% 84-83 (167) |
PL pltrkr111 | Mananchaya Sawangkaewavg 53¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$0 | 54% 708-602 (1310) |
 VeryLucky888 | Mananchaya Sawangkaewavg 54¢ | $944.98 | $881.79 | +$10.05 | 58% 40364-29157 (69521) |
SE sentrio | Mananchaya Sawangkaewavg 53¢ | $305.29 | $305.29 | +$0 | 50% 24824-24517 (49341) |
 RollAwayTheDew<$100 | Mananchaya Sawangkaewavg 55¢ | $95.4 | $91.93 | -$2.6 | 53% 297-265 (562) |
stringXXCTRInvested
$3,000
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$4.85
Record
50%
84-83 (167)
Invested
$2,000
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
708-602 (1310)
VeryLucky888Invested
$944.98
Value
$881.79
PnL
+$10.05
Record
58%
40364-29157 (69521)
Invested
$305.29
Value
$305.29
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
24824-24517 (49341)
RollAwayTheDew<$100Invested
$95.4
Value
$91.93
PnL
-$2.6
Record
53%
297-265 (562)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.