Sun vs. Liu: Match O/U 21.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 53¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 50%
$5.8K
-$57.41
50.6¢ → 53¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239 | Overavg 49.6¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$118.57 | 38% 488-802 (1290) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 50.3¢ | $2.3K | $2.2K | -$176.42 | 58% 41483-30105 (71588) |
 88M | Overavg 53¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$0 | 42% 777-1076 (1853) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 36¢ | $1.46 | $1.9 | +$0.45 | 38% 3184-5183 (8367) |
Invested
$2,459
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$118.57
Record
38%
488-802 (1290)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$2,341.86
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$176.42
Record
58%
41483-30105 (71588)
88MInvested
$1,085.51
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$0
Record
42%
777-1076 (1853)
Invested
$1.46
Value
$1.9
PnL
+$0.45
Record
38%
3184-5183 (8367)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.