Guangzhou Open: Xinran Sun vs Claire Liu
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Claire Liu (50%) · Claire Liu at 63¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Claire Liu
4
Claire Liu 50%
1 arb excluded
$8.3K
$143.21
60.9¢ → 62.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralClaire Liu at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Claire Liu. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Claire Liuavg 61¢ | $4.9K | $5.0K | +$201.04 | 49% 669-690 (1359) |
TR trabaCTR | Xinran Sunavg 39¢ | $2.3K | $2.2K | -$87 | 17% 27-132 (159) |
 XYZ7676 | Claire Liuavg 60¢ | $788.8 | $821.67 | +$32.87 | 51% 128-121 (249) |
 VeryLucky888ARB<$100 | Xinran Sunavg 39¢ | $506.82 | $258.39 | -$23.03 | 58% 41239-29904 (71143) |
| └ Xinran Sun leg | Xinran Sunavg 39¢ | $148.2 | $142.5 | -$22.1 | |
| └ Claire Liu leg | Claire Liuavg 63¢ | $116.82 | $115.89 | -$0.93 | |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Xinran Sunavg 39.9¢ | $61.46 | $57.77 | -$3.69 | 58% 28255-20837 (49092) |
Invested
$4,905.09
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$201.04
Record
49%
669-690 (1359)
Invested
$2,262
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$87
Record
17%
27-132 (159)
XYZ7676Invested
$788.8
Value
$821.67
PnL
+$32.87
Record
51%
128-121 (249)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100Invested
$506.82
Value
$258.39
PnL
-$23.03
Record
58%
41239-29904 (71143)
Both legs:
Invested
$61.46
Value
$57.77
PnL
-$3.69
Record
58%
28255-20837 (49092)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.