Guangzhou Open: Xinran Sun vs Harriet Dart
1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Xinran Sun (11%) · Xinran Sun at 52¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Xinran Sun
9
Xinran Sun 11%
$10.8K
-$114.04
Research grade
NeutralXinran Sun at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 isco22 | Xinran Sunavg 52¢ | $6.0K | $5.7K | -$346.2 | 63% 128-75 (203) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR | Harriet Dartavg 48¢ | $2.9K | $3.1K | +$180 | 47% 2476-2784 (5260) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Harriet Dartavg 49¢ | $902.25 | $902.25 | -$9.21 | 53% 5582-4951 (10533) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Harriet Dartavg 48¢ | $720 | $765 | +$45 | 58% 41637-30243 (71880) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Harriet Dartavg 49¢ | $171.5 | $171.5 | +$0 | 46% 8113-9541 (17654) |
LI LilybaeumCTR | Harriet Dartavg 48¢ | $126.89 | $134.82 | +$7.93 | 62% 13691-8554 (22245) |
BA Bagwell306CTR<$100 | Harriet Dartavg 48¢ | $76.84 | $81.64 | +$4.8 | 59% 4048-2859 (6907) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Harriet Dartavg 48¢ | $48.96 | $52.02 | +$3.06 | 58% 28489-21037 (49526) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Harriet Dartavg 48¢ | $9.23 | $9.81 | +$0.58 | 45% 682-837 (1519) |
isco22Invested
$6,000.8
Value
$5.7K
PnL
-$346.2
Record
63%
128-75 (203)
Invested
$2,880
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$180
Record
47%
2476-2784 (5260)
Invested
$902.25
Value
$902.25
PnL
-$9.21
Record
53%
5582-4951 (10533)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$720
Value
$765
PnL
+$45
Record
58%
41637-30243 (71880)
Invested
$171.5
Value
$171.5
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
8113-9541 (17654)
Invested
$126.89
Value
$134.82
PnL
+$7.93
Record
62%
13691-8554 (22245)
Invested
$76.84
Value
$81.64
PnL
+$4.8
Record
59%
4048-2859 (6907)
Invested
$48.96
Value
$52.02
PnL
+$3.06
Record
58%
28489-21037 (49526)
Invested
$9.23
Value
$9.81
PnL
+$0.58
Record
45%
682-837 (1519)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
isco22
Xinran Sun — $5.7K
0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542
CTRHarriet Dart — $3.1K
0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989
CTRHarriet Dart — $902.25
VeryLucky888
CTRHarriet Dart — $765
38791873984189
CTRHarriet Dart — $171.5
Lilybaeum
CTRHarriet Dart — $134.82
Bagwell306
CTRHarriet Dart — $81.64
LeLynxMalynx
CTRHarriet Dart — $52.02
AnonymousUsername
CTRHarriet Dart — $9.81